Early Bird – 15th September

What a day we had. From tips in two races we had both winners at SPs of 5/1 and 12/1 giving a 77/1 double and a cracking profit on the day! Hopefully follow that into the weekend now.

 

Tips

 

1:50 Doncaster – Dakota Gold – 1.5pt e/w MAX 8/1 WillHill 1/5th odds 6 places

Udontdodou – 0.75pt e/w @ 11/1 WillHill and Paddy 1/5th odds 6 places

3:15 Chester – Rockin Roy – 2pt win @ 7/2 WillHill

3:50 Leopardstown – Sharjah – 1.5pt win @ 5/1 Skybet

3:55 Chester – Bossipop – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 WillHill 1/4 odds 3 places

7:10 Leopardstown – Danielsflyer – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 Skybet 1/5th odds 5 places

 

 

 

Analysis

 

1:50 Doncaster – Dakota Gold – 1.5pt e/w MAX 8/1 WillHill 1/5th odds 6 places

Udontdodou – 0.75pt e/w @ 11/1 WillHill and Paddy 1/5th odds 6 places

 

Been looking at this race long and hard which is why I have ended up with a MAX bet along with a saver. The Max bet is on Dakota Gold. All the pace is high, which is significant as it was a similar story last year with the pace drawn high. In the end 9 of the first 11 home were drawn in double figures. The winner was a horse who usually was held up but was able to travel just off the pace and finish strongly. Dakota Gold has a very similar profile with it rated 1lb lower than last years winner and a year younger. Both come into the race having finished 3rd on their last starts having been held up and staying on strongly. Dakota Gold is drawn in stall 15 but can drop in behind the pace horses slightly higher. Has form on ground with ease in it and having been rated as high as 100 last year then it certainly seems capable of winning off just 91. Tops the RPR it has a fantastic chance.

The saver on Udontdodou is partly a sentiment bet having landed us a great touch at Windsor last time having advised an e/w bet at 18/1 though winning at 10/1. Did so fairly cosy so hard to imagine the 4lb rise would be enough to stop it. Drawn just one down from Dakota Gold it does need things to fall right for it like it did last time but it is still rated higher on the a/w and handles ease in the ground. Admittedly I have a worry that things may happen a bit quick for it over this trip short of 6f but it owes us nothing and if they do go too hard it will be staying on strongly late on.

 

3:15 Chester – Rockin Roy – 2pt win @ 7/2 WillHill

 

One of the prerequisites I look for at Chester is a clear top weight from a low draw and I have a prime one in Rockin Roy. Carrying 9lb more than its next rival and drawn in stall 3, a good place to attack for this front runner. Is in fine form and may well of been looking for a 5 timer here if not for blowing the start two runs back before staying on in 3rd. Weight is less of an issue around tight turning tracks so class tells. A winner on good to soft last time so hopeful soft will not be a problem, if it breaks on terms it will take a lot of beating for this in form yard.

 

3:50 Leopardstown – Sharjah – 1.5pt win @ 5/1 Skybet

 

Can’t resist a bet on this horse who set a decent level in France when last seen in the flat a couple of years ago. Attained two RPR of 87 and finishing with a 99. This is compared with Limini who carries 5lb more whose best in France was 89. Solid standard set on its two flats run of late, finishing runner up both times and an RPR best of 98. However, Sharjah has looked talented over hurdles only to find the obstacles getting in the way at times! A switch to flat with a mark that looks particularly workable in races like this for a trainer who is becoming a master at placing his flat runners. Plenty of support in the betting and arguably Irelands best flat jockey on board. If it is fit to do justice then it could well be the one to beat.

 

3:55 Chester – Bossipop – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 WillHill 1/4 odds 3 places

 

A horse with a couple of strong trends which make it a confident bet in this race. Basically the horse is seen at its best over 6f, going left handed and racing within 17 days of its last start which is the case here. Its figures under those conditions are 312120021. Both ‘0’ were in the two biggest fields it has raced in, conditions not ideal for a horse who front runs or races prominent. When applying the above figures purely to its runs at Chester and it reads 121, the 2nd was beaten a neck. Handles easy ground when it is a victor on both soft and heavy ground. Its draw in stall 8 probably means it won;t front run but can still drop in and take a handy position to kick on late. Only 2lb higher from its last win and the same mark as when winning last year. Everything is poised for a big run.

 

7:10 Leopardstown – Danielsflyer – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 Skybet 1/5th odds 5 places

 

Getting involved once more in an Irish handicap after the success in one on Friday. Doesn’t really feel like an Irish handicap though with a third of the runners hailing from the UK. Safe Voyage has the form in the book and only 2lb higher from its last win when staying on well at the finish it seems to be the one to beat. However, at more than twice the price I am happy to chance Danielsflyer to reverse the form. It has 5lb in hand allowing for the jockey claims to turn over a neck deficit. Not only that but it was poorly drawn that day (First four home come from stalls 2, 13, 1, 4) and then at Goodwood it had a bad draw again in 15 when finishing 6th but 2nd best of those to come from a double figure stall. Biggest worry is the yard form. Some ugly looking finishing positions of late and not had a winner from last 40 to try dating back 27 days. But more often than not you can’t have everything and it just takes one horse to turn all that around. Hoping this is it.