Early Bird – 1st September

Unfortunately due to technical difficulties I was unable to post any tips for Friday. We did have a great winner on Thursday though with Beverley Bullet who was extremely well backed, even on course to win at 7/2. Had advised at 8/1 having initially been 11/1 when starting writing the tips.

 

Tips

 

2:45 Beverley – Mr Lupton  – 1.5pt win @ 5/1 WillHill and Paddy Power

3:55 Beverley – Delph Crescent – 1.5pt win @ 13/2 WillHill

5:20 Sandown – Dream Machine – 1.5pt win @ 4/1 Unibet

 

 

 

Analysis

 

2:45 Beverley – Mr Lupton  – 1.5pt win @ 5/1 WillHill and Paddy Power

 

On Official Ratings this is a two horse race, between Take Cover and Mr Lupton. I am a big fan of the pair of them and of course tipped up Take Cover e/w at a big price when second to Battaash at Glorious Goodwood. However, I favoured it that day as it loves a sharp track as well as fast ground. It has the ground but not the track. Yes, it is a course and distance winner having taken this race last year, but it was from a favourable draw and getting a relatively uncontested lead. This time there is competition for it and it has to race wide from stall 9. On its outside is Mr Lupton who I prefer though the draw is less of an issue for this hold up horse. Always had it down as a big field 6f horse though it has shown much more versatility in the last couple of years. 5f is within its distance now especially when getting a strong pace to chase. With a fast pace assured I would be confident Mr Lupton won’t be far away staying on late.

 

 

3:55 Beverley – Delph Crescent – 1.5pt win @ 13/2 WillHill

 

Backed this last time when it narrowly got up on the line and is worth backing again despite being worse off at the weights with its rival. This comes down to the old handicapping adage that weight can slow a horse down, but it cannot make it run any faster than what it is capable off. Often you will see horses who look well weighted with a recent rival but they still fail to turn the form around. There are several reasons why that may happen, making weight irrelevant in some ways. In this case though it is about resolution. Twice now Delph Cresecent has knuckled down to win by a marginal distance. He has a fantastic will to win when in a head to head battle and will stick its neck out on the line. That is an amazing attribute in a horse as they are invariably pack hunters preferring to run around in groups in the wild. The thing about horses who really want to win is that handicappers struggle to get hold of them as they can’t hit a horse too hard with a weight penalty, not for winning by a small margin. Therefore I doubt the 7lb rise will be enough to stop this horse, especially when the pair were over 3 lengths ahead of the third who has won again since!

 

 

5:20 Sandown – Dream Machine – 1.5pt win @ 4/1 Unibet

 

Slight concern this is on the drift though it may be the in run players laying it early as it is a horse who will probably trade big early being the type to be held up for a late run. This is what Spencer tried when we was on it last time only to look particularly embarrassing when never in the race, staying on all too late. Has a very consistent profile since being gelded and has placed on both starts at this course. The fact Spencer has been booked for the ride again, I hope he won’t make the same mistake.