Early Bird – 26th August

Great results on Saturday with two winners out of three with Beat the Bank and Pivoine, whilst we also landed our e/w bet on Nakeeta who finished 7th and once more highlights the importance of being selective as to where you bet, ensuring you get the best odds and place terms available.

 

Tips

 

2:35 Curragh – Viadera – 1.5pt win @ 4/1 Bet365, Unibet and BetVictor

4:10 Goodwood – Raid – 1pt win @ 6/1 Bet365, Skybet and Unibet

Anna Nerium – 1pt win @ 9/1 widely available

 

 

Analysis

 

2:35 Curragh – Viadera – 1.5pt win @ 4/1 Bet365, Unibet and BetVictor

Not sure on the favourite here. Slight worry about the form of the O’Brien yard, though they did have a couple of winners in Ireland today. I can’t say that Zagitova has justified its position in the market for this race though. The form of its win doesn’t look overly strong though did win in a decent manner. After two runs each though it has a fair bit to find on RPR and Topspeed. The form of Viadera last run is working out well with the winner since finishing runner up in a group 2 at Glorious Goodwood. There is quite possibly more to come from this stepping up in trip and with the yard going well it is the one they all have to beat.

 

4:10 Goodwood – Raid – 1.5pt win @ 6/1 Bet365, Skybet and Unibet

Anna Nerium – 1pt win @ 9/1 widely available

 

A nice group 3 race for a Sunday featuring several horses people will be familiar with. However, to me they are a much of a muchness, who invariably run well without winning. Looking at those aged 4yo+ they have run 28 times this year, winning just three times. One was a handicap, one was a classified stakes and the third was a 4 runner listed race. All three victories went to two horses who are both outsiders for this contest in Zhui Feng and Salateen. Looking at it in further detail, 4yo+ occupy 4 of the front 5 places in the betting yet between those four they have been beaten 17 times so far this season. Somewhat disconcerting is that 7 of those races saw the runner finish either 2nd or 3rd. Therefore you can understand why they are so short int he betting, but also why I am prepared to take them on. I am therefore focusing on the 3yos with the two to catch my eye being Raid and Anna Nerium. Because of the negative stats surrounding the principles in the betting then I am prepared to bet both horses. Raid is lightly raced with just the three runs under its belt. However, its two runs this year are working out pretty well. First time up it was 4th in the Greenham to James Garfield, who was recently 2nd in a French Group 1. Second was Expert Eye who has subsequently won two Group 3’s and runner up in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes. Third was Hey Gaman who was second in the French Guineas on its next start. All three of those runners were vastly more experienced than the once raced Raid going into the Greenham. It then ran in the English Guineas where it finished 8th, beaten just over 5 lengths. The Guineas hasn’t worked out too bad, with the Derby winner in third, twice group 1 winning Roaring Lion in 5th and numerous other winners and placers at group level surrounding. Raid hasn’t been seen on the track since but is still open to further improvement after just three starts and from a yard that can get one ready after a break.

I also can’t get away from Anna Nerium who gets all the allowances as a 3yo filly. Group 3 winner as a 2yo, she started the season winning a listed handicap off a mark of 100 in a strong looking 7f race. Has since run three times over a mile, finishing 7th in the Guineas against her own sex and 8th of 12 in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot. Sandwiched between them runs it was 2nd to Wilemina, who then went and finished 3rd in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge at Royal Ascot. Should appreciate the drop in trip to 7f again and with a couple that like to make the running it will get a good pace to chase. Could be more to come at 7f and getting weight from the field she should go close.