Early Bird – 27th September

Tips

 

4:00 Perth – Promise Of Peace – 1pt e/w @ 9/2 widely available

5:35 Pontefract – Show Palace – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 Bet365, WillHill and BetVictor

8:15 Kempton – Volcanic Sky – 1.5pt win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

 

Analysis

 

4:00 Perth – Promise Of Peace – 1pt e/w @ 9/2 widely available

 

A bet to nothing that the bookmakers hate I hope. Takes on an odds on favourite from the Elliot yard which may just of been flattered by its margin of victory last time over a poor field. This is much more competitive and Promise Of Peace promises to be talented. Was 5th in the German Derby and won a couple of races there on good ground. Was made favourite for a Bangor maiden but clearly had its issues as could finish only 5th. Was quickly given a wind operation and turns out here with a tongue tie as well so breathing was obviously a reason for defeat at Bangor. With Golden Jackpot having to give almost a stone in weight to Promise Of Peace, if the operation and tongue tie work then it can give the favourite plenty to think about for a minimal loss to us if it finishes 2nd or 3rd.

 

5:35 Pontefract – Show Palace – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 Bet365, WillHill and BetVictor

 

This is too big a price for a horse with such a fine record on ground with give in it, assuming it doesn’t dry out. Hopefully if it does go good all over then connections will see common sense and pull it rather than risk running and injuring the horse, along with us losing money! Record on good to soft or softer when racing within 42 days or less of last start is 1111131171154 – The 5th and 4th were this year where it has struggled a bit from its handicap mark. Is gradually slipping though and should be more comfortable this season with a few runs under its belt. Got a good field to chase and reunited with its regular jockey. As I said, if the ground remains on the easy side then expect this to be thereabouts at the finish.

 

 

8:15 Kempton – Volcanic Sky – 1.5pt win @ 7/2 William Hill

 

The combination of top apprentice Jason Watson and Saeed Bin Suroor has really worked well this year, boasting a 50% strike rate on the a/w with 4 winners and 2 seconds from 8 rides. May not stop here with this horse who will appreciate the drop in trip having blasted clear but not lasted home over further at Chelmsford. Gets to race off the same handicap mark despite going off a 2/9f last time. That was only 21 days ago so not much could have changed in that time. May find this track more to its liking and with the 3yo allowance it should go very well.