Early Bird – 29th September

A winner with Mustashry at a best price of 15/8 whilst we also landed a small profit with a place from Medieval in 5th having recommended with Skybet with their 6 places. Hope to continue that form on into the Saturday.

 

Tips

 

3:00 Newmarket – Emaraaty Ana – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 Betfair Sportsbook

3:10 Chester – Kinks – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 widely available

3:15 Haydock – Final Venture – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 5 places

3:40 Newmarket – 1pt e/w Tricorn @ 20/1 Bet365 1/4 odds 8 places

0.75pt e/w Zwayyan @ 33/1 Bet365

0.5pt e/w Whats The Story @ 40/1 Bet365

5:55 Newmarket – Danielsflyer – 1pt win @ 13/2 Unibet

Muntadab – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 Ladbrokes & Paddy Power

 

 

Analysis

 

3:00 Newmarket – Emaraaty Ana – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 Betfair Sportsbook

 

A race that looks primed for an e/w bet against the front two in the betting according to trends. Nine of the last ten winners had raced at least three times with only Dream Ahead in that time winning with less experience. This is also a race in which shocks do occur with three winners bigger than 20/1 since 2011. Add in the fact there is currently 8 runners and it would be rude to pass up an opportunity like this. I have gone with Emaraaty Ana for a yard that has won this race twice in the past. Likely front runner who has shown plenty of pace in its three runs to date. A group 2 winner who seemed to stay on well to the line, it is the highest officially rated in the race yet is still improving. As long as it doesn’t get taken on for the lead then we should get a good run for our money.

 

3:10 Chester – Kinks – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 widely available

 

Can’t resist a clear top weight at Chester from the number one stall. 10 runner races yet is more than half a stone superior to all barring two of the opposition. Been competing at a much higher level than this and running with credit without looking like winning. Should find this easier and can take the shortest route all the way round. Yard has a habit of popping one in at a decent price whilst I think it is no coincidence that course expert Franny Norton has been booked for the ride. Whilst it is susceptible to a classier horse thrown in, it has form in the book, the best draw and the best jockey in the race.

 

 

3:15 Haydock – Final Venture – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 5 places

 

A horse who is used to competing at a higher level with three of its last four races at listed level. However, it has a fine record below that grade. Its figures over 5f in class 2 or lower read: 1311233, unplacing just once in its only handicap on the a/w and a 7 runner affair. A winner over course and distance of a listed race on soft ground, it clearly has no issues with conditions. The form of its last race has worked out with the third winning next time out, whilst its third place when last in a handicap reads well with the winner going on to take a group 3 and the runner up winning a handicap of its own. Has no fear of big fields I am expecting a good run.

 

3:40 Newmarket – 1pt e/w Tricorn @ 20/1 Bet365 1/4 odds 8 places

0.75pt e/w Zwayyan @ 33/1 Bet365

0.5pt e/w Whats The Story @ 40/1 Bet365

 

Unsurprisingly I am taking three in the race covering all parts of the draw with low, middle and high placed horses. There are five key trends for this race which I have focused on. Only one horse has carried more than 9st 4lb since 2003. Nine of the last ten winners had won a race with at least 13 runners. Nine of the last ten had also been tried at beyond a mile, nine of the ten had also raced at least 10 times whilst finally nine of the last ten had run within the last 49 days, a stat that last years favourite Big Country couldn’t overturn. With all of the front runners in the betting breaking at least one of these trends I have turned to three at bigger prices that fit them. First is Tricorn who I admit fails on the 13 runner race trend, but that is only by one runner and it has also finished third in a 29 runner handicap in the past, proving it handles big fields. Hasn’t really gone on this year from its Brittania third though shaped much more promisingly last time when a narrow 2nd at Chelmsford despite not getting a clear run. The head gear can be somewhat a positive with four of the last seven winners wearing some kind of headgear. From the in form Gosden yard it is still relatively lightly raced and would think there is more to come off its current mark.

Next is Zwayyan who looks well drawn amongst the pace horses in the middle. However, never sure how the field may end up splitting, assuming they do. Its record on good or softer or a/w in fields of 11 or more is 8113141, unplacing just once so seems to enjoy these challenges. Seems to have worked a good partnership with talented apprentice Jason Watson having finished 1st and 2nd the two times he has ridden. Another that wears headgear it competes off the same mark as when a close second last time out. In form it looks overpriced.

 

Finally we have Whats The Story. Clearly more chancey but that is reflected in its price. Has won 20 runner and 13 runner handicaps so no problem on that score. Decent start to the year including finishing 4th in the Hunt Cup. Excuses the last twice having not stayed the extended 1m 2f of the John Smiths Cup before unlucky in running at Galway from a poor low draw. Races of the same mark as the Hunt Cup run, it should enjoy the trip. If the draw isn’t a negative then it could surprise.

 

5:55 Newmarket – Danielsflyer – 1pt win @ 13/2 Unibet

Muntadab – 0.5pt e/w @ 16/1 Ladbrokes & Paddy Power

Back two in this race as I feel one I am just unable to leave out at a price. That is Muntadab who is a 7f specialist in my book these days and so can ignore the 6f on heavy ground last time and the 7 1/2f the time before that at Chester when going off too fast. Mark is 3lb lower than when 3rd in a better race at York in the summer and looks the sort the yard is plotting up and will punt heavily. Whether this is the race I’m not sure but no obvious candidate to take it on for the lead and so is worth supporting e/w.

The other is Danielsflyer who I tipped at Leopardstown last time when 4th but beaten only 1/2 length. Just denied a clear run at an important time but still stayed on well to the line. Had previously been poorly drawn when defeated at Goodwood and Galway. Hopefully no traffic problems here and can benefit from stronger handling and better timing in the saddle from a professional. It is surely up to winning a race of this nature.