What hard luck we had on Saturday with three seconds in Dubai at 25/1 SP, 40/1 advised and 15/2 SP. The first two rewarded e/w bets at least to minimise the damage but could have been so much different!
2:45 Fairyhouse – Sayar
This is where my theories about races been overrated affecting the betting significantly. Needless to say it is the Supreme hurdle which Getabird and Sharjah both ran in finishing 11th and 8th respectively yet are a best price 5/4 and 9/2 for this. Preference from a betting point of view would be with Sharjah who seemed to travel quite well before bunny hopping the last and getting swapped at the finish when losing momentum up the hill. However, if that race isn’t as good as first seems, certainly not from those finishing outside the places, then this race then provides value to those improvers who bypassed the festival. The best of these I think is Sayar, twice raced over hurdles for Willie Mullins. Lightly campaigned it handles any ground and has yet to do anything wrong, looking impressive in both victories. Trainer is the best at readying a horse after an absence so that is no concern, it looks like it could be capable of serving up to the market principles.
1pt win Sayar @ 8/1 widely available
3:50 Fairyhouse – Augusta Kate
In he week of the Masters maybe it is app that I am picking a horse with the same name as the course the golf is played at. Maybe it is no coincidence having also won at this meeting this time last year over the same distance. Having advised it for the Stayers hurdle at Cheltenham it was disappointing not to see it get involved at all having been held up. Don’t think the race panned out the way she would have liked. However, a strongly run 2m 4f may be much more to her liking. The form of her second to Presenting Percy looks strong, she showed similar improvement from her run last year at Cheltenham having finished 6th there to suggest that she can find what is required to take a hand here.
0.75pt e/w Augusta Kate @ 16/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Coral, Betway and BetVictor
5:00 Fairyhouse – Monbeg Notorious
Couldn’t help but be impressed with the way Monbeg Notorious destroyed a good field in the Thyestes Chase having been very well supported late on in the betting to do so. Been following it ever since with it holding several graded entries including at Cheltenham but not taking any of them up. Clearly connections must feel there is more to come off its handicap mark as they go for the Irish National using Outlander off top weight to ensure the rest of their runners carry considerably less! Jack Kennedy has built a good rapport with the horse the last twice so not concerned at the fact he is riding and not Davy Russell. With novices having a good record in this including last years Our Duke, it can take this before going on to much bigger things.
1pt e/w Monbeg Notorious @ 10/1 Paddy 1/5th odds 6 places