Early Bird – 30th August

Well, it’s typical that I go for the bigger price with 3 places and the horse finishes 4th. Hopefully some of you did get on with the extra place and had a small return off the bet, but for me it will be recorded as a loser. Reading on the change of surface with it riding on the slow side I knew we would be in a bit of trouble backing a hold up horse. More often than not if it is slow then the track will favour prominent racers. A quick check now and I see three of the four races have been won by horses that either led or were prominent. The only one not was our one though the winner made an early enough move from midfield whilst the runner up chased the strong early pace.

Life For Rent blew the start and was always playing catch up which was never going to happen. Certainly looks capable in this grade.

 

Tips

 

3:40 Carlisle – Illusions – 1.5pt win @ 9/2 Ladbrokes

4:10 Carlisle – Beverley Bullet – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 Bet365 1/4 odds first 3 (Now a best price 8/1 Paddy Power)

 

 

Analysis

 

3:40 Carlisle – Illusions – 1.5pt win @ 9/2 Ladbrokes

 

I’ll be honest. I don’t really like tipping horses on soft ground when they are not proven on it. However, there are strong reasons to think this is value at its current price and would not be a surprise to me if it didn’t start the race as favourite, especially if it is believed it will handle the ground. For a start it is clear by three points on the RPR ratings suggesting it has shown easily the strongest form at the weights. It also has the second highest topspeed in the race. The form of its last run is working out very well and looks a class above this race. Beaten four lengths into 4th, though running on at the finish, the first three home filled those positions throughout the race. Since then both the winner and second have run again and they each won. Nayef Road who won the race followed up in a class 2 handicap and is now officially rated 95. Commanding Officer who was second then won a good looking York maiden and holds entries at Group 1 and 2. Admittedly Illusions was getting 5lb but you can’t help but feel that a mark of 70 looks very lenient, and in fact is due to go up 2lb already after this run. As to the ground, its sire Toronado won both its starts on ground with give in it, though they were good to soft, however, one of those victories was the group 1 Sussex Stakes. Her dam also won on soft ground, when taking its maiden on debut. The dam sire was definitely a fast ground horse so there has to be doubts concerning the ground. The price though means I still think it is value considering the level of form it has shown and is worth a bet.

 

 

4:10 Carlisle – Beverley Bullet – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 Bet365 1/4 odds first 3 (Now a best price 8/1 Paddy Power)

 

Might seem a bit of a chance backing a horse who has managed just one place from his last eight runs. However, it is easily seen at its best with give in the ground. 6 of its 7 win and places on turf have come with give in the ground, including all three victories. Its figures when getting give in the ground reads 6427613114672 3/13 for the win with a further 3 places. However, those trends improve to 2112 when only looking at those runs on right handed tracks and is 2/2 here. Its two places were both at Beverley, a course where the horse is sure to be targeted considering its name. In fact the race I assume it is named after is this weekend and it does hold an entry in a handicap on that day. However, it is struggling to get into the race at current weights so a win here would be a help, giving it a penalty for Saturday. If not then connections may think that this is an easier option especially granted its conditions and fine record here and this turns out to be the target anyway. Either way it looks good for its prospects in this race.