Early Bird – 4th August

Frustrating but profitable day nonetheless with 2nds at 25/1 and 33/1 advised (Both ended up shorter but beaten by the race favourites) plus a best odds guaranteed 14/1 4th where it was important we shopped around as most firms were not paying the 4th place in the race. Add in the fact Escobar got no run whatsoever and you can see why I was a little peeved about the day. We are at least going close with the value though and a good profit made on the day still.

 

Tips

2:25 Goodwood – Platitude – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 Ladbrokes, Coral & BetVictor 1/5th odds 4 places

3:40 Goodwood – George Bowen – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 6 places

0.5pt e/w Reputation @ 50/1 188bet 1/5th odds 7 places

5:25 Goodwood – The Warrior – 0.75pt e/w @ 16/1 Ladbrokes, Paddy, Coral and Betvictor 1/5th odds 4 places

 

2:25 Goodwood – Platitude – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 Ladbrokes, Coral & BetVictor 1/5th odds 4 places

What’s not to like here? Two time course and distance winner who has seen a new lease of life now switched to a new yard and had a wind operation. Connections are based nearby and so must of had this race in mind for some time. The horse is best on good or faster ground and would appreciate a decent pace which it is likely to get in a field of this size. Overall form is solid whilst he is in good form having finished 2nd last time in a listed contest. Yard had a winner at the Festival taking a decent handicap prize. Having been rated higher in the past there is reason to think it could still win off its current mark and though it looks a little more exposed than some of its rivals it rates a solid bet.

 

3:40 Goodwood – George Bowen – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 6 places

0.5pt e/w Reputation @ 50/1 188bet 1/5th odds 7 places

 

Taking two as you can imagine in this race. The first is a trends based tip. Six of the last seven winners had been officially rated at least 102 whilst in the last ten years horses aged 7 or older are just 1/47. Importantly horses that raced over 5f last time out are 0/58 so it is important to have been racing over at least this trip. Five of the last eight winners had won last time out whilst another had finished second so we are looking for an in form sprinter. With seven of the last ten winners priced at 14/1 or shorter we also have to concentrate on those towards the head of the betting. Therefore a lot points towards George Bowen as being the winner. Quickened up nicely to win last time it seems to enjoy big field sprints over this trip and on decent ground. Gets on well with this jockey and though it requires a career best it could still be improving.

The other I am supporting is against the trends though having finished 2nd last time out it can be considered in form. It is also at the opposite end of the draw. Reputation has been largely unfancied in all its runs this year, starting at double figures each time, not that it has stopped the horse from running well, winning at 16/1 and 2nd of 6 at 10/1 last time. Has plenty of speed it should be able to keep out of trouble and may even bag a rail to help it keep a straight path. I also like the fact that it has a very promising talent in its 7lb claimer who is well worth it and should have no trouble ‘pointing and aiming’ this horse at the finish line. Not the most consistent though its win in a big field at Epsom last year shows it has the ability

 

5:25 Goodwood – The Warrior – 0.75pt e/w @ 16/1 Ladbrokes, Paddy, Coral and Betvictor 1/5th odds 4 places

Ok, this horse is a bit of a sod and can’t be trusted when it comes to a finish. Often seen finishing really well as an eyecatcher but never getting there. However, there are reasons to be optimistic here. Firstly the handicapper has took a chance on it by dropping it 4lb from its last run. The horse goes particularly well here for a local yard who love to have winners at this meeting. Appreciates decent ground it is stepping up in trip to beyond a mile for the first time which is a bit of an unknown but has been lacking the early pace lately suggesting the longer distance is worth a try. Finally it has one of the best apprentices in the race in George Wood on board. Bound to need some luck in running, if it stays then it seems a very good e/w price.