Early Bird – 4th September

Disappointing from out tip today who was well backed even further, but seemed to get worked up in the stalls and then was slowly away once again. Wasn’t tried once it was clear it wasn’t going to get near.

 

Tips

 

4:10 Goodwood – Stanley – 1.5pt win @ 11/2 Bet365

 

6:25 Leicester – Retribution – 1pt win @ 7/1 widely available

 

7:25 Leicester – Psychotic – 1.5pt win @ 13/2 BetBright

 

 

Analysis

 

4:10 Goodwood – Stanley – 1.5pt win @ 11/2 Bet365

 

Good looking handicap for a Tuesday. Outside my usual comfort zone being over 2m but I think there is sufficient evidence to suggest there is a bit of value in Stanley. That may stem from the fact that I just can’t bring myself to back, nor trust Mark Johnston horses and with him having two in the race, both at 3/1 or less then I am happy to oppose them. Stanley is particularly interesting. Has a fine record when ridden by Shane Kelly, with figures of 3212123, never finishing out of the places. Handles easy ground well it is drawn to hold a handy position so should take a nice pitch in a race that will be run at a decent gallop. Yet to win over 2 miles but seems to see the trip out fine. The form of its last run has worked out pretty well with the fourth winning next time out off the same mark. Admittedly this is a tougher race but it has a low weight to carry and so hopefully will go well.

 

6:25 Leicester – Retribution – 1pt win @ 7/1 widely available

 

Was gambled on first run for several months last year when going close. Just seemed to take too long to make its move, staying on strongly to be beaten a head in second. Run a couple of times after including when last seen almost exactly a year ago over a trip which is clearly too short based on its previous couple of runs. This is probably the right trip for now and judging by the money for it before then it clearly has ability off this mark. Not going to over commit on it and no money yet for it, but is still worth chancing at its current price. It did go off as 5/4 favourite last year off this same mark for one race so have to believe its price of 7/1 could look very good.

 

7:25 Leicester – Psychotic – 1.5pt win @ 13/2 BetBright

 

A horse who clearly has ability but hasn’t been showing it in a higher grade. Takes a significant drop into a class 6 for the first time and so should find this much easier than the class 4 it was last in. Not disgraced this summer when 5th of 6 off a 7lb higher mark though only beaten 4 1/2 lengths. I like the booking of Fran Berry who is having a great year and hopefully if getting the race run to suit then it has a great chance.