7:40 Windsor – Tripartite
One of the outsiders of this field but may of been underestimated by the bookmakers. Showed some decent form last year, running on well to win a class 5 at Lingfield on fast ground over 1m 2f before a creditable 4th at Epsom where it stayed on in a race that worked out very well. Wasn’t seen again that season but subsequently moved yards to Phil Middleton. Was gambled in to favouritism on first run for the yard, despite having been off the track for 316 days. Was pretty keen though and having led 3f out it subsequently faded. Blew the start when tried over hurdles next time, left 20 lengths which then saw it have a wind operation. Only been seen once since the wind op when well beaten by unfancied anyway for a maiden hurdle. Has similar conditions to what it had for first run of the season, fast ground and a 1m 2f trip, yet is fit from a recent run less than a week ago, is 2lb lower in the handicap, in a slightly weaker race and a jockey who takes a further 7lb off its back. Needs to show improvement but is clearly thought capable hence the gamble on it for first run of the year. At its price there is little risk with very good reward.
0.5pt e/w Tripartite @ 33/1 Paddy and Betfair Sportsbook
3:35 Ayr – Carlton Frankie
Have tipped up this horse a couple of times this season already, winning on one of those and I think it looks value again. Has bags of speed so the 6f was never going to suit last time and no surprise it didn’t see the trip out. Has a decent strike rate whilst jockey takes a handy 5lb off here, riding a horse which is pretty straightforward. Opposition may not be as strong as it may seem at first glance. Line Of Reason looks a horse in decline and was beaten last time off a 3lb lower mark in Ireland. Its losing run is starting to grow though last two runs have shown a lot more. Marnie James is an improving 3yo but is stepping up in class and takes on older horses here rather than competing against its own age group. Oriental Lily is another that is going up in class and may find things happening a bit quick for it in this grade at the minimum trip. I certainly think a small field sprint is within Carlton Frankies capabilities off this mark and so looks value in this contest.
1pt win Carlton Frankie @ 15/2 Bet365, Betfair, Paddy and BetVictor