Early Bird – Ante Post 8th September

I will be away this weekend so thought I would get on the tips early by looking at this Saturdays competitive affairs.

 

Tips

3:15 Kempton – Mudallel – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/4 odds first 4

3:35 Haydock – Speedo Boy – 1pt win @ 10/1 Widely available

4:15 Haydock – Eqtidaar – 0.75pt e/w @ 16/1 Paddy Power

 

Analysis

 

3:15 Kempton – Mudallel – 1pt e/w @ 14/1 Paddy Power 1/4 odds first 4

 

Bound to be a competitive race no matter what turns up and it’s never easy trying to narrow a field down when so many horses are in form and we still don’t know what the draw is. However, rather than back a front runner who could end up being drawn wide I would rather back something that is usually held up so the raw becomes less significant as either way they will be dropped in behind for the cover. Proven over course and distance is another positive which is why I like the look of Mudallel, a two time c/d winner from last summer where it thrived on the slower surface. The type to appreciate a big field with a strong gallop and plenty of cover, it will need luck in running and yet to know who will ride it. But, been running well in races not run to suit of late and good reason to think there is still plenty of movement in its current mark of 83. I am hopeful this won’t be far away if getting the breaks.

 

 

3:35 Haydock – Speedo Boy – 1pt win @ 10/1 widely available

 

This looks a race that could really break up come the day of the race. Only two horses are available at a single figure price and both of those hold other entries. Magellan is set to run on Thursday over 1m 4f whilst Ghostwatch may well run in the more valuable 3yo only handicap also to be run on Saturday and thus explaining why so few 3yos run in this race. The last 6 winners were rated 99 or lower which would rule out the likes of Hochfeld and Austrian School. With 8 of the last 10 winners also placing on their last start it is important you have a horse coming into the race in form. The three that therefore interest me are Bolder Bob, Speedo Boy and Island Brave. Purely from a value point of view at this stage of the betting then I have to side with Speedo Boy for Ian Williams, who looks to have booked William Buick for the ride already. Both Bolder Bob and Island Brave are from smaller yards whilst there is some concern over the form of the Barron yard of Bolder Bob who have not had a winner for 27 days. Speedo Boy is proven over 2m, can handle any ground and wasn’t disgraced when third of 16 runners, given a lot to do and unable to get to the leaders who had first run. Actually went off favourite for that race so clearly is thought capable off a similar mark. In a race that could cut up badly, I expect this to be close to favouritism come race time.

 

 

4:15 Haydock – Eqtidaar – 0.75pt e/w @ 16/1 Paddy Power

 

Three year olds have a great record in this race having won the last four runnings and six in the last ten. In that time they have a strong strike rate of 6/38 runners compared to the older generation who are 4/103. The strongest candidate from the elders has to be Blue Point who is five from five away from Ascot (22240). Won this race last year and is 2/2 at the track in all. Will take a lot of beating though finished lame last time and always a concern whether it will need the run. At a best price of 11/8 it means there is plenty of value to be against it either way. James Garfield is the standout 3yo on the basis of its second in the Maurice De Gheest last time. However, that was a significant improvement on what it had shown previously and be interesting to see whether it can now repeat the performance on home soil.

Instead I am taking Eqtidaar who took the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. Kept on well for victory showing a marked improvement in form, though had previously shown promise when 2nd in a group 3 at Ascot first up this year. Disappointed at Newmarket in the July Cup, but may of found the race coming too soon after its Commonwealth exploits and he wouldn’t be the first horse to not handle the Newmarket hills. Runner Up to it in the Commonwealth was Sands Of Mali who I was tempted to also back. However, its form is in smaller fields which is no surprise from this trailblazer. Even when 2nd in the 22 runner Commonwealth Cup it actually raced amongst a group of 6. Eqtidaar has to put a poor run in the July Cup behind it but it seems to be the choice of Jim Crowley with the owners also having a shorter priced runner in the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if this went off at a single figure price.