Early Service – 3rd August

Tips

3:00 Goodwood – 1.5pt win Escobar @ 13/2 Betfred

0.75pt e/w Poets Society @ 25/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds first 5

3:35 Goodwood – Kachy – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 widely available

0.5pt e/w Take Cover @ 33/1 Ladbrokes & Coral

4:40 Goodwood – One Master – 0.75pt e/w @ 11/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 4 places

 

 

3:00 Goodwood – 1.5pt win Escobar @ 13/2 Betfred

0.75pt e/w Poets Society @ 25/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds first 5

 

An easy way to narrow this field down is to consider the draw as 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower. This is despite racing in fields of 20+ runners. The reason the draw seems to play such a significant role in the race is because they actually turn more than 90 degrees over the course of the mile, more akin with Chester. Class is also significant. The first three home last year were rated in the 100s whilst 11 of the 12 top six finishers in 2015 and 2016 were also rated 100 or higher. So, all we need is a horse rated 100 or higher and drawn 8 or lower. This leaves just two in Repercussion and Escobar. The ground is a major concern for Repercussion whose top four RPRs have come on ground with soft in the description. Has generally disappointed on faster ground and with conditions drying all the time then it may well struggle. Escobar looks far more feasible though. Loves fast ground, it ran a cracker at Sandown last time where the progressive winning 3yo got first run on Escobar and just failed to reel it in. Will need luck again here but fits the profile of previous winners and could still be well handicapped.

Outside of the official rating trend then I think Poets Society is worth supporting. Most of the horses drawn in stalls 8 and lower want to be held up off the pace, all barring Poets Society who led here just two days ago over 7f before fading, having tried setting the race up for its stable companions. Interesting they have turned it out so quickly plus the addition of Frankie Dettori in the saddle having often been ridden by an inexperienced claimer I can see this going very well especially if getting an uncontested lead.

 

3:35 Goodwood – Kachy – 1pt e/w @ 8/1 widely available

0.5pt e/w Take Cover @ 33/1 Ladbrokes & Coral

 

Looks a very solid e/w bet in favourable conditions against a favourite whose form doesn’t quite match up to last years, has to concede weight to the field and also has a habit of being slowly away. Prepared to ignore Kachy’s last run as it was slowly away at Ascot, which is impossible for a front runner all about pace. This horse has a fine record on sharp tracks and good or faster ground where its record reads 11101121, the 0 actually in this race two years ago when not in the same form as it is now. Is a course and distance winner and drawn amongst the pace. If it breaks on terms then it shouldn’t be far away.

I also can’t ignore an old favourite in Take Cover as I will be kicking myself if this was to come in. Another to love conditions, the drying ground is in its favour as this horse is all about speed even as an 11yo. Twice a winner of this contest, its record under the same conditions mentioned for Kachy reads 11162221221 5/11 and only once outside the first 2. Not really looked the same horse so far this year, and disappointed at York in a race it won last year, however this looks a good chance to reignite the spark and chances are this has been plotted up as it has for the past few seasons. I would be foolish to leave this horse out.

 

4:40 Goodwood – One Master – 0.75pt e/w @ 11/1 Paddy Power 1/5th odds 4 places

 

Not got the best of draws though that is more than reflected in the price. May not be such an issue for a horse often held up. Been turned over as favourite for both runs this year, the latter over 6f in a group 3. Might well benefit from a bigger field and the likely stronger pace. It has the joint highest RPR in the race and the highest Topspeed rating so though susceptible to an unexposed 3yo it has plenty of proven form and potential itself. Yard form is fine and have had a winner partnered by James Doyle at the festival already. If the draw is not too much of a hindrance then I am hopeful it will be there at the finish.