Early Bird – Antepost 12th October [test]

Tips

 

12th October

 

1:50 Newmarket – Well Done Fox – 1pt win @ 8/1 Ladbrokes and Boylesport

3:35 Newmarket – Pretty Pollyanna – 1.5pt win @ 11/2 Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddy and Coral

 

Analysis

 

1:50 Newmarket – Well Done Fox – 1pt win @ 8/1 Ladbrokes and Boylesport

 

Trends suggest you don’t want to be looking at an SP much bigger than 8/1 with 12 of the last 15 starting at that price or shorter. From an Ante Post perspective therefore I have ruled out anything that is currently available at 20/1 or bigger. 13 of the last 15 had already won over 5f which rules out the favourite True Mason. Happy to take on the two O’Brien horses as you never know which, if any, will turn up for the race. Many an ante post wager has gone down on their horses as they go with something different in the race, or pull their horses altogether. 9 of the last 12 winners had run within the last 29 days which is a big negative for 2nd Fav Pocket Dynamo, off the track since the end of July. 9 of the last 12 winners were also rated 100 or higher which would rule out the 82 rated Poetry, the 99 rated Dave Dexter and the 94 Heartwarming. This leaves a shortlist of Well Done Fox and Shumookhi. Preference is for the former who holds the latter on their running at Doncaster when Well Done Fox finished second to Soldiers Call, that form boosted further when the winner ran a very close third in the L’Abbaye at the weekend. Shumookhi finished back in 5th 2 lengths behind. That has since ran again when 2nd on heavy at Ayr in a group 3. I suspect the latter is better with give in the ground and with the weather set to be fair including hottest October day possible on Wednesday then Well Done Fox is the bet at this stage.

 

3:35 Newmarket – Pretty Pollyanna – 1.5pt win @ 11/2 Ladbrokes, William Hill, Paddy and Coral

 

This is the class horse who looked in need of a longer trip on last run having been kept to 6f her career. The current favourite Antonia De Vega is very susceptible on trends as the last 12 winners had all raced within last 29 days (ADV off for 48 days) and 11 of the last 12 had also raced at least 3 times whereas Antonia De Vega has just the two to her name. With 8 of the last 12 coming from the top three in the betting then once again the head of the market is the place to concentrate on. Unlikely all three O’Brien horses will turn up and they take up a fair bit of the market here so sure to be value elsewhere. The only other at a single figure price in the market is Shambolic but is another that fails the trends with just two runs. Pretty Pollyanna is a Group 1 winner with no penalty to carry who will surely lead these off. It will just be a question of if she gets caught.