Form Guru – 10th August

Yesterday finished in profit when Castle Talbot prevailed at Brighton and Duke Cosimo returned place money when he finished second at Newcastle.

 

Today’s Selections:

 

3.00 – Brighton:

Hermosa Vaquera. 1.75 pts win. Available at 15/2.

Lady Natasha. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1.

 

The rain which has arrived at Brighton has seen conditions ease significantly and that’s good news for both Hermosa Vaquera and Lady Natasha. Hermosa Vaquera has form figures of 2111 on G/S or soft ground over 12 furlongs with one of those victories coming at this track and the other three coming on the similar contours at Lingfield. She hasn’t been seen since December but she has won twice after similar breaks in the past and three of her best five career performances have come under today’s jockey. She hasn’t won off a mark this high but she has a victory from two pounds lower so she is not weighted out of things. It normally pays to take note of the Trainer’s runners at his local track, he has a very profitable 17% strike rate in recent seasons. Lady Natasha is the outsider of this field and she has been below form in three starts for her current Trainer. However they all came on fast ground and her best form has come under much slower conditions. Her best three efforts have come on G/S or Soft ground at or around 14 furlongs. and there may be enough pace in this race to bring her stamina into play. She is down to a career low mark and could outrun market expectations for a yard who have yet to have a winner under both codes.

 

4.40 – Musselburgh – Magnum. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1.

 

4.50 – Wolverhampton – Indiana Dawn. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 20/1. (Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred – 1/5 odds first 4)

 

7.15 – Tipperary:

Bouquet Garni. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1. (Betbright – 1/4 odds first 4)

Alwarda. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 16/1. (Totesport, 188Bet – 1/5 odds first 5)