Form Guru – 21st May

Lightning Spear only just failed to get up in the Lockinge at Newbury on Saturday, returning place money. Unfortunately our other selections didn’t fare as well on a disappointing day.

 

Today’s Selections:

 

3.15 – Carlisle – Gold Chain. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 16/1.

 

This long distance flat race contains mainly exposed horses but some still have a bit of potential over extreme trips. It’s not surprising to see Hediddodinthe and Uptown Funk toward the head of the market because they are relatively lightly raced in comparison to the rest. However the one to appeal at both the weights and price is the eight year old Mare, Gold Chain. It’s been almost two years since she last won on the flat but she was twice a winner in as many days over hurdles this time last year. She was a cheap sale to current connections in January and has been beaten on the A/W at Wolverhampton and Lingfield in two outings since. The first came after a near six month break and the last, a seven length beating into eight of the twelve runners, was actually her best of four career efforts on the artificial services. That suggests she may be in better heart than her form figures would have us believe. She was only seen on the flat on turf three times last season and finished in midfield on all three occasions. They were all from a nine pound higher mark than she runs from today and she was a C/D winner from four pound higher in August 2016. She represents a yard with a very poor strike rate on the flat but they have had very limited ammunition to work with and Gold Chain has won ten of her 66 starts over hurdles and on the level, which is a decent tally for as horse of her ability.

 

5.15 – Carlisle – Alexandrakollontai. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1.

 

Alexandrakollontai is an admirable Mare. A winner of twelve of her 88 starts she has won at least once a season in her six campaigns to date and, with four of her ten victories coming from higher marks than she runs from today, she is weighted to make it seven consecutive seasons without a blank this year. She was a well beaten last on her return to turf at Hamilton earlier this month but she has always needed her reappearance (sometimes more) so it may not be a reflection of how she will perform today. She needs a stiff track and a decent pace and, although she gets the first she may not get the second, which is a slight concern. She has won from six furlongs up to a mile and on all types of ground. Her last race on turf last season saw her go very close from a two pound higher mark in a much better race last October. She seems to be an ‘if the mood takes me’ type of horse but at her current price she looks worth risking.

 

8.30 – Leicester – Carry Me Home. 1.25 pts e/w. Available at 10/1.