Form Guru – 28th September

Yesterday ended in profit. Right Direction was successful at Newmarket and Computable and Top Boy placed at Pontefract, returning place money. Busy Street only found the improving favourite too good at the same track with Dance King doing some good late work in the same race to finish fifth. Also at Pontefract the only disappointment on the day was Sheepscar Lad who was reported to have run ‘flat’.

 

Today’s Selections:

 

2.05 – Haydock – Flood Defence. 1.75 pts win. Available at 15/2. (Marathon Bet)

 

The early morning weakness in the price of Flood Defence is a small concern but she holds compelling claims. At best with a bit of cut in the ground she has raced over shorter in her 14 race career and she is not bred for this far. However she was finishing to some effect over 11 furlongs at Hamilton last time out and the extra 175 yards here shouldn’t pose a problem if that effort is taken at face value. That was almost her best performance to date and just behind that she produced when winning over Sandown’s stiff ten furlongs. Today’s longer trip opens up new avenues for her and she is on the same mark as for the Sandown victory. The yard have a very profitable 21% strike rate here in recent seasons.

 

4.55 – Haydock – King’s Pavilion. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 16/1.

 

Tadaawol is due to go up ten pounds in future handicaps so his chances are there for all to see. There are also some potential improvers on show, Fondest topping that list. Fastar won on his only previous visit to this track and Markazi had good form in France and has joined a yard who do well with such types. They are all respected but slight preference at the relevant prices is for the exposed King’s Pavilion. His last two starts have been over an extended ten furlongs at York and, although he stays ten furlongs, most of his best form has been at or around today’s trip. His best form has been on slower ground and his career best effort came on his only previous visit here when he was a one length fourth in a better race last September. He is eight pounds lower in the weights now and a repeat of his thirds at Ripon and Epsom would see him get competitive here. Franny Norton returns to the saddle for the first time since the partnership won in June 2016.

 

5.15 – Newmarket:

Medieval. 1.75 pts win. Available at 15/2. (Black Type)

Everything For You. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1. (Generally available – 1/5 odds first 5)

 

6.45 – Newcastle:

Mutabaahy. 1.5 pts win. Available at 9/1.

Secretinthepark. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1. (Generally available – 1/5 odds first 4)

 

8.15 – Newcastle – Oud Metha Bridge. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1. (Generally available – 1/5 odds first 4)