Form Guru – 31st July

Yesterday finished in profit when Redarna was successful at Ayr.
Today’s Selections:
 
1.50 – Goodwood:
Medrano. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1. (Generally available – 1/5 odds first 4)
Original Choice. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 16/1. (Generally available – 1/5 odds first 4)
 
We supported Medrano at wolverhampton last time out and he traveled well in the rear before finding trouble when making his move. He did well in the circumstances to finish second and he may be able to build on that today. He will need to because he is in a much better race here from a two pound higher mark. The typical winner of this race is 4 or 5 years old but Medrano missed all of last season so he wouldn’t be bucking the trend. His form a few seasons back saw him rated as high as 109 so he has the inherent class for a race of this nature if the ability still remains. He will get a decent pace to aim at and he has run well here on both previous visits. His style of running means he will need luck in running but the booking of Silvestre De Silva, who is 2 from 2 for the yard, is a sign of intent for their only horse at this meeting. Original Choice was below form on his return from a short break last time out at Sandown but the fast ground wouldn’t have been to his liking and he may been seen to better effect now conditions have eased. He has an appealing progressive profile and is a horse who never does more than he has to. He travels well through his races but he is not a bridle horse because he responds well to pressure. He has yet to race over today’s trip but he was seven furlong winner as a two year old and he has proven strong at the end of a mile in the majority of his races so he could have plenty of untapped potential over this new distance. Alfarris looks the stable’s number one but Original Choice is over twice the price and with Danny Tudhope, who has a 26% strike rate for the yard in recent seasons, booked he looks the better value.           
 
3.00 – Goodwood:
Suedois. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1. (MarathonBet)
D’bai. 1.5 pts win. Available at 8/1. (Bet365)
 
It doesn’t make good betting sense to get too attached to certain horses but it’s difficult not to have a soft spot for the admirable Suedois. His profile is littered with top class efforts and he rarely gives less than his best on the racetrack. His best could well suffice in a race in which he was a slightly unlucky third last season. Since then he has won a Group Two in Ireland and a Group One in America and he has been working his way to a peak in his three starts this season. He has his regular jockey up and looks primed for a big effort but in a race of this nature it may be wise to have another horse in reserve. That horse is D’bai who kicked of this campaign with a second over six furlongs in a Listed race at Windsor and followed that with a narrow win in a Group Three over seven furlongs at Haydock. He was beaten just over five lengths back at six furlongs in the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Ascot last time out but he should be happier back over today’s trip and he seems to handle any ground. He has the assistance of William Buick who has a very profitable 25% strike rate at this track.       
 
4.45 – Goodwood – Duke Of Firenze. 2 pts win. Available at 7/1.
 
4.55 – Beverley – Ninepin Bowler. 1 pt e/w. Available at 12/1. (Bet365, Paddy Power, Betbright)
 
5.15 – Goodwood – Hateya. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 14/1. (Ladbrokes – 1/5 odds first 4)