Form Guru – Ascot 23rd June

Royal Ascot – Day Five – 23rd June 2018:

 

2.30 – Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) – 7 Furlongs:

Key Trends:

15 of the last 15 winners had no more than 2 previous career runs

14 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 3 last time out
13 of the last 15 winners ran over 6 furlongs last time out (8 won)
13 of the last 15 winners had just 1 previous career run
12 of the last 15 winners were foaled in March or earlier
10 of the last 15 winners won their previous race
10 of the last 15 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting

9 of the last 12 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Favourites have won 5 of the last 15 renewals
Of the last 15 winners 3 were trained by Aidan O’Brien, 2 by Mark Johnston and 2 by Richard Hannon.
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 3 of the past 7 seasons
11 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 1-8
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (3)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 7/1
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

9 of the last 10 winners were by a sire with a stamina index of at least 8.7f

8 of the last 10 winners had an adjusted RPR of at least 91

7 of the last 10 winners were rated within 9 pounds of RPR top rated

2017 winner was the first to previously win over seven furlongs since 1999 (Both trained by Aidan O’Brien)

The record of Fillies is 2 from 33.

 

Race Analysis:

 

The current strong favourite for this race is Natalie’s Joy. She won her sole start, a Goodwood Maiden over six furlongs, by six lengths in a good time on the good ground. What the form amounts to isn’t clear but the style of the victory is not in doubt and she is open to all manner of improvement. She is bred to be more effective over this longer trip. Aidan O’Brien has won this race for the past two seasons and is represented this season by Cardini. Both his starts to date have been in Maidens over six furlongs at the Curragh. He finished midfield in the first of them and fifth in the second beaten around six lengths on each occasion. He may be better suited by the step up in trip but he needs to find significant improvement and his price owes much to his Trainer rather than his apparent ability. Charlie Appleby has been having a good season with his Juveniles and he runs Beyond Reason. He was runner up to New Winds, who re-opposes here, on debut at Newmarket and had no trouble justifying odds of 1/2 when winning by four lengths on his second start at Kempton, both outings were over six furlongs. She is bred to be suited by this step up in trip and looks likely to run well. Arthur Kittand Nate the Grate were winners of their sole start and San Donato finished second as favourite in a good Yarmouth Novice race. The winner is an exciting John Gosden Colt and, although there were four lengths between them, there was nearly the same distance back to the third. Matthieu Palussiere sent Different League to win the Albany at this meeting last season and he sends On a Session, who has taken an identical route, to take in this race. He has to prove his effectiveness on this quicker ground but he should be afforded respect.

 

Selection:

 

No Bet.    

 

 

3.05 – Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (4yo+) – 1m4f (1m3f211y):

Key Trends:

15 of the past 15 winners had won over at least 10 furlongs before
15 of the past 15 winners had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
13 of the last 15 winners were placed last time out
13 of the last 15 winners had won over 12 furlongs before
11 of the last 15 winners had at least 2 previous runs that season
11 of the last 15 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (6)
10 of the last 15 winners had run at Ascot before
10 of the last 15 winners were aged 4 years-old (inc last 8 winners)
9 of the last 15 winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6 of the last 15 winners ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
6 of the last 15 winners had won their previous race
Favourites won 5 of the last 15 renewals
10 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
8 of the last 12 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2

9 of the last 10 winners had an adjusted RPR of 129

 

Race analysis:

 

Only five runners go to post and the race holds little interest from a betting perspective. Crystal Ocean is Officially Rated four pounds and higher above the other four. He has won both his outings this season, producing a career best on his eighth start last time out, and it would be a shock if both he and Cracksman were to lose in the same week. However he is not our kind of price so we will sit this one out.

 

Selection:

 

No Bet.

 

 

3.40 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (Class 1) (2yo) – 5 furlongs:

Key Trends:

16 of the last 16 winners had at least 1 previous outing
15 of the last 16 winners won by a foal born April or earlier
15 of the last 16 winners had 2 or 3 previous runs
13 of the 16 winners had won over 5 furlongs before
11 of the last 16 winners were placed last time out
11 of the last 16 winners had never run at Ascot before
8 of the last 16 winners won their previous race
9 of the last 16 winners returned a double-figure price (including a 100/1 winner)
8 of the last 16 favourites were unplaced 
6 of the last 16 winners were won by a Feb foal
Favourites have won 3 of the last 16 renewals
7 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 17/1

9 of the last 10 winners were by a Sire with a stamina index of between 6.5f and 8f.

8 of the last 10 winners had an adjusted RPR of at least 94.

In the last ten years only one winner had won outside Maiden/Novice company.

Fillies won five in a row between 1996 and 2000 but only two have placed in the last 10 years

This race is often won by Trainers not associated with Royal Ascot winners.

 

Race analysis:

 

Wesley Ward had a change of luck on Thursday when Shang Shang Shang was successful, He saddles Moonlight Romance who chased home Shang Shang Shang on her debut before going on to win at Belmont Park. From her draw nearest the stands rail she could be dangerous if she gets loose on the lead. Drawn next to Moonlight Romance, Sabre was an impressive winner on his debut on the Tapeta at Newcastle before splitting Vintage Brut and Konchek in the Listed National Stakes at Sandown. The winner did nothing for the form here in the Norfolk Stakes on Thursday but the third ran well in the same race and the fourth (Blown by Wind)  did likewise in the Coventry Stakes on Tuesday. It may not be standout form but it’s arguably among the best on offer here and he has plenty of potential for more. Also drawn high is Soldiers Call. His Trainer, Archie Watson, has had a good season with his Juveniles and his representative stepped forward from his debut effort at Lingfield by winning at Haydock. He may not have achieved much there but he left the impression he was capable of better and this stiffer track promises to suit. Mutawaffer was beaten two lengths by Blown By Wind on debut with two previous winners ahead of him and put that experience to good use when winning easily at Goodwood next time out. That was over six furlongs but the second and third have followed up since and the drop back to the minimum shouldn’t pose a problem on this stiff track. Looks likely to get competitive if his draw in stall 7 doesn’t inconvenience him. Drawn in stall 10, Junius Brutus, has won both his starts in France by around five lengths showing plenty of speed in the process. The form probably doesn’t amount to much but the Trainer had the Albany winner here last season and he had a Juvenile run well here on Wednesday. Junius Brutus went through the sales ring for a tasty £300,000 on Monday. Drawn in the centre in stall 15 is the William Haggas trained and James Doyle ridden, Queen Of Bermuda. She ran into Shades Of Blue on her debut but split that runner and Come On Leicester and they both ran well here on Wednesday. She improved to win her second start at Thirsk and did the same to win under a penalty at Windsor last time out. She could be the major threat from the home team. Dom Carlos has improved with each start. After being unplaced on his first two starts he got things right dropped back to five furlongs when beating a couple of previous winners in impressive fashion at the Curragh. Any further improvement will make him a major player. Van Beethoven won his second start at Naas over six furlongs and improved again to finish second over the same trip in the Listed Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. That form has started to look strong with the first, third and fourth all running well here this week. The step back in trip may not inconvenience on this stiff track but his draw in stall two may do. There are plenty of others who could improve enough to get competitive in a minefield for punters.

 

Selection:

 

No Bet.  

 

 

4.20 – Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+) – 6 furlongs:

Key Trends:

14 of the last 15 winners were previous winners over 6 furlongs.
12 of the last 15 winners failed to win their last race
12 of the last 15 winners were aged 5 or younger
12 of the last 15 winners were previous Group Race winners
11 of the last 15 winners had run at Ascot before
9 of the last 15 winners were won by a UK-based yard
8 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price
Favourites have been unplaced in seven of the last 15 renewals
Favourites have won 3 of the last 15 renewals.

5 of the last 13 winners were Irish-bred
7 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure draw
6 of the last 13 winners returned a double-figure price
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1

9 of the last 10 winners had an adjusted RPR of at least 125.

In the past decade only 3 winners were successful earlier in the season.

 

Race analysis:

 

The favourite for this race is Harry Angel. He progressed into a top drawer performer last season. He is the apple of his Trainer’s eye and his belief that he was a Group One performer was realised when he won twice at the top level as a three year old last season. Over this C/D he was runner up in the Group Three Pavillion Stakes on his reappearance and the winner was the winner of the King’s Stand this week. He followed that by impressively winning the Group Two Sandy Lane at Haydock and being beaten under a length by Caravaggio in the  Group One Commonwealth Cup at this meeting. He finished his campaign with three more races at Group One level. He won the July Cup at Newmarket and the Sprint Cup Stakes at Haydock before finishing fourth back over C/D in soft ground in the Champions Sprint. He reared at the start and raced keenly that day so he had his excuses but that took his tally here to 0 from 4. He has run perfectly well on each of his four visits to this C/D but, if he is vulnerable, then it’s here where he may be worth taking on. Aidan O’Brien is triple handed and Merchant Navy looks his main hope under Ryan Moore. Formerly trained in Australia where he won five of his eight starts. He took his record to six from nine when winning on debut for his current handler in a Group two at the Curragh last month. He looks a strong sprinter and he is likely to be making gains late in the day. Bound For Nowhere steps over the Atlantic to represent America here for the second year running. He was fourth in the Commonwealth Cup last season and looks to have improved since. City Light represents France and he won the A/W sprint championships at Lingfield on Good Friday. However the best of the overseas challenge may be Redkirk Warrior. He is one of Australia’s top sprinters having dropped in trip since being sent over there. He has progressed to win three times from five starts this season. The victories have included two Group One races, beating Merchant Navy narrowly in one of them. He is 12 pounds better off with that rival here so, in theory, he should confirm the form. The booking of Dettori signals a sign of intent. James Fanshawe’s The Tin Man won this race last season but he faces a stiffer task in this company this time round. Librisa Breeze is likely to be seen to best effect later in the season when there is cut in the ground but he would’ve gone close with a clear run in this race last season and that was under fast conditions. If he is going to win anywhere despite the underfoot conditions then it’s likely to be here rather than anywhere else. City Light has improved significantly this year and the way he beat Kachy over six furlongs at the A/W championships at Lingfield in March lives in the memory. He has since won with a bit in hand back on turf over five furlongs at Longchamp. That was his first win at the minimum trip but this race is likely to be set up for him nicely if he can tabs on them early on. Needs to progress again to be a win contender but, based on this year’s exploits, that’s not out of the question.    

 

Selection:

 

Librisa Breeze – 1.25 pts e/w @ 12/1. (Skybet – 1/5 odds first 4)

 

City Light – 1 pt e/w @ 14/1. (Skybet – 1/5 odds first 4)

 

 

5.00 – Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-110) – 6 furlongs

Key Trends:

18 of the last 18 winners had won before over 6f or 7f
18 of the last 18 winners had no more than 4 runs that season
17 of the last 18 winners ran within the last 6 weeks
17 of the last 18 winners finished sixth or better last time out
16 of the last 18 winners had won a race over 6 furlongs before
15 of the last 18 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
12 of the last 18 winners had at least 2 runs already that season
11 of the 18 winners returned a double-figure price in the betting
9 of the last 18 winners had run at Ascot before (6 had won here)
5 of the last 18 winners won their previous race
Favourites won 4 of the last 18 renewals.

The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1
10 of the last 12 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
8 of the last 12 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
8 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure draw
7 of the last 8 winners came from a double-figure stall
In 6 of the last 7 renewals the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Since 1980 there have been only 7 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 30 winners returning a double-figure price

The last 10 winners were rated within 7 pounds of the top rated RPR

The last 10 winners were rated between 95 and 106.

5 of the last 10 winners were top or joint top rated.

 

Race analysis:

 

Tis marvellous – A look at his form figures would have most running for cover but they don’t tell the whole story. He never troubled the judge in four races last season but they were all in Group company and he wasn’t disgraced behind the likes of Blue Point, Battaash and Caravaggio. Two efforts in Meydan earlier this year didn’t amount to much but he was only beaten one and half lengths into 5th of the 15 winners on his return at Newmarket last month and he is now down another pound in the weights. That race wasn’t run to suit but this one will and it should see him get competitive at the very least. His best effort on these shores came over this C/D last season and his fourth, beaten just under four lengths, saw Blue Point, Harry Angel and Mutabism fill the first three spaces. He is well handicapped if he were to repeat that and he wasn’t far below that level when returning for the Commonwealth Cup at last seasons Royal meeting. Returning here over a fast run six furlongs on quick ground gives him every chance of producing his best and the only concern is his draw in stall five.             

 

Gilgamesh – Relatively lightly raced four year old who caught the eye when first home on the stands side in the Victoria Cup over seven furlongs here last month and followed that up with victory over the same trip at York, taking his record to five wins from nine starts. Four pound rise for the win looks manageable and won on his only previous drop back to six furlongs. Seven furlong form in a six furlong sprint at Ascot is no bad thing especially given the pace normally generated by these large fields. A centre draw gives his jockey options and he still may have some untapped potential as a sprinter.

 

Mr Lupton – Did really well to reel in El Astronaute over York’s fast five furlongs last time out and the return to six furlongs will suit, especially on a stiff track off a fast pace. He is back up three pounds in the weights to a daunting mark of 106 but he has defied a pound higher in the past so it’s not beyond him. He wasn’t disgraced on his only previous visit here in the Group One Champion Sprint back in October 2016. Has performed to a high level in all three starts this season and it could be a similar story under these conditions. He won’t be seen until late in the day but expect him to be finishing fast and late if he is close to the leading pack entering the latter stages.

 

Selections: (All Skybet – 1/5 odds first 7)

 

Gilgamesh – 1 pt e/w @ 12/1.

 

Mr Lupton – 1 pt e/w @ 14/1.

 

Tis Marvellous – 0.75 pts e/w @ 20/1.   

 

 

5.35 – Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (Class 2) (4yo+) – 2m5½f (2m5f143y)

This looks likely to go to Thomas Hobson on these terms and there’s nothing much solid with which to take him on. Fun Mac was a bit unlucky in this race last season and a repeat would probably get him into the frame at least.

 

Selections:

 

Fun Mac – 0.75 pts e/w @ 16/1. (Betfair – 1/5 odds first 4)

 

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