Early Bird – 17th April

4:10 Newmarket – Roller

Nice early season big field handicap over a mile which could give us several pointers towards the season ahead. I am siding with Roller despite the long absence. In fact I don’t think it is a hindrance for the horse with both career wins coming after breaks of 88 days and 200 days, whilst it was also 2nd on its debut. A mile on this ground looks perfect for it whilst still looks unexposed for a 5yo. Yard know how to get them ready and it is not unusual for them to make the raid down south. Whilst I am sure to be watching this race over several times I think the money at this stage could be by with Roller.

1pt win Roller @ 8/1 widely available

4:45 Newmarket – New Show

Small bet on the potential of New Show in this. I like to take on those 2yos that ran several times. They are less likely to improve for the progression to 3yo and there is a good chance that they were well developed at 2 which is why they were able to show all their form at that age. The two unexposed runners with potential are Msayyan and New Show. With the latter only having one run to its name along with the higher RPR of the pair then it makes sense to go with that. Yard has been in decent nick whilst they clearly think something of the horse for it to hold both English and Irish guineas entries.

1pt win New Show @ 14/1 widely available

5:20 Newmarket – Donncha & Accession

Think it is worth taking a couple of the older brigade e/w in this competitive handicap. With Donncha you can ignore its run in the Lincoln. Anything drawn high found it virtually impossible to get into the race. Last year it was starting at much shorter prices for much more competitive races. Last year it was third in the Lincoln off a 6lb higher mark and I think the handicapper is finally relenting with it after several good performances despite having not won for almost three years. Price is certainly fair as if it has retained its ability it woud be more than capable in this race.

The other I am taking is Accession who has the perfect conditions. Two years ago it won this race off a mark of 91 by 6 lengths. Last year it was only fifth but the ground was much faster that day (1 from 26 on good or faster compared with 5/16 on ground with give in it) and the race was a lot stronger than this. Having also gone well fresh including when winning in 2016 this has been a target and it could well surprise at a big price.

0.75pt e/w Donncha @ 14/1 Skybet 1/5th odds 5 places

0.5pt e/w Accession @ 22/1 Betfred 1/5th odds 5 places