A disappointing day having been confident heading into it. The foul ground didn’t help at all and is why, with further rain forecast at Fairyhouse, I don’t want to get too much involved. There is one horse though I hope is worth supporting.
4:40 Fairyhouse – Flemenstorm
In this ladies race it is important to look at the jockeys and figure out where the best value for money is coming from. For me it has to be Katie O’Farrell getting 7lb, the same as several amateur jockeys who are far less experienced. She has a reasonable 9% strike rate in chases and has ridden in several big races. The 7lb claim could be invaluable here. It certainly is when considering the weights in comparison to favourite Sunsetstorise who beat it by 6 lengths last time. Allowing for the general weights adjustment and the 7lb claim from the jockey then Flemenstorm has a 16lb weight pull with Sunsetstorise. The longer trip will also be in Flemenstorms favour whilst it actually stays further which looks important on this heavy ground. Has plenty of heavy ground experience of late where it has been running well, finishing second three times in a row. This could be the ideal trip though and with the help of the jockeys claim then it can at least make the places.
1pt e/w Flemenstorm @ 10/1 Bet365 1/4 odds first 3