Form Guru – 4th October (Analysis)

​None of our selections gave us a return yesterday.

Today’s Selections:
1.50 – Lingfield – Noble Peace. 1.5 pts win. Available at 15/2.
There are a few potential three year old improvers on show here, and a couple of last time out winners, but it may pay to oppose them with Noble Peace. It’s been almost a year since he last won and he hasn’t placed in eight starts (4 on the A/W) for current connections. That run of form has seen his A/W mark fall by fourteen pounds. His form figures don’t give a true reflection of how he has been running because he wasn’t beaten that far in five of those eight starts from some difficult draws in much better races. He has run well here on all three previous visits (from 7-10 furlongs) and this is his first time back here since being beaten just over three lengths here from a stone higher in the weights on his debut for his current yard. This race represents a significant drop in class and will be the first time he has started at less than 33/1 this year. Jack Mitchell has a profitable record for the yard in recent seasons (12% strike rate) and he has a very profitable 17% strike rate at this track over the same period.    
3.35 – Huntingdon – Boughtbeforelunch. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1.
A few interesting runners in this moderate handicap hurdle. Boughtbeforelunch didn’t make the frame in his first five starts over hurdles but he did so on his sixth (second start in a handicap) when finishing a 13 length third over a furlong further here on good ground last time out. The margin of defeat was exaggerated through his saddle slipping in the latter stages and, although he looked beaten, the effort can be marked up somewhat. He runs from the same mark in a lesser race here and Richie McLernon partners again, his only booked ride at the track today. The yard have hardly been prolific in recent seasons but they had a profitable 21% strike rate (3 from 14) here last season and they send just the one to the races today.       
4.30 – Lingfield – Zafaranah. 1 pt e/w. Available at 11/1. (Generally available – 1/5 odds first 4)
7.15 – Chelmsford – Cainhoe Star. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 9/1.