Royal Ascot 2018 – Day Four

Royal Ascot – Day Four – 22nd June 2018:
2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo) – 6 furlongs
Key Trends:
15 of the last 15 winners had between 1 and 2 previous runs.
15 of the last 15 winners had never raced at Ascot before.
14 of the last 15 winners were born in February or March.
14 of the last 15 winners finished in the top 3 last time out.
11 of the last 15 winners won their previous race.
9 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price.
7 of the last 15 winners were trained by Channon (2), Hannon (3) or Noseda (2).
Favorites have won 4 of the last 15 renewals.
The last 12 winners came from double-figure stalls.
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 11-14.
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 12/1.
The last 10 winners had an adjusted RPR of at least 95.
9 of the last 10 winners had previously won a race.
9 of the last 10 winners were by a Sire with a stamina index of at least 7.4f.
7 of the last 10 winners ran in a Maiden last time out.
Race analysis:
The Ballydoyle pair of Just Wonderful and Fairyland attempt to regain the Albany Stakes for Aidan O’Brien after the yard were successful in the race in 2016. Ryan Moore partners Just Wonderful and she was a winner on her sole start at the Curragh. The stable’s Juveniles normally improve for their first run so she obviously has plenty of inherent talent. The form of that race is working well with the second subsequently winning and the third finishing a close second in the Queen Mary here on Wednesday. Fairyland is unbeaten in two starts, the last when beating her male counterparts easily in a Listed race at the Curragh. That arguably sets the form standard but both Fillies offer significant potential and could be difficult to beat. One that could get amongst them is the Mark Johnston trained Main Edition. She is also unbeaten in two starts and she has created a very favourable impression on both occasions. After a comfortable victory on debut at Windsor she handed a similar beating to her male counterparts under a penalty last time out at Goodwood. that came on soft ground but her debut victory came under fast conditions so she already doesn’t seem ground dependent. Her yard have enjoyed a good season so far with their Juveniles and this one has the physical scope for plenty of improvement. She’s related to a Listed and a Group Two winner so she is bred to be useful and she is in the right hands to fulfill that potential. The yard also run Octave. She won on her debut and bumped into impressive Coventry winner, Calyx, when finishing second at Newmarket earlier this month on her second start. She was no match for the winner but she pulled five lengths clear of the rest and she could get competitive if she improves again. John Gosden is represented by Angel’s Hideaway. She was third to two subsequent winners on her debut and improved to win a Haydock Maiden on her second start. She is bred to be useful and the yard, even with the disappointment of seeing Cracksman’s colours lowered, have still had four winners and five placed at this meeting. Their representative here needs to find plenty of improvement to figure but the Trainer is very adept at doing just that with Fillies in his charge. Godolphin/Appleby run La Pelosa. She won her only race and in the process beat a subsequent winner with ease. She was an expensive purchase from the breeze-up sales so she knew her job but she looks a strong Filly who could get competitive with normal improvement. Of the others Irish raider Chicas Amigas and French raiders Byron Bay and No More Regrets could outrun their odds.
No bet
3.05 – King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) – 1m4f (1m3f211y) 
Key Trends:
15 of the last 15 winners had at least 2 previous runs that season
14 of the last 15 winners returned 9/1 or shorter.
12 of the last 15 winners had never raced at Ascot before
10 of the last 15 winners finished in the top three last time out
9 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 10 furlongs before
8 of the last 15 winners had won at least 2 previous races during their career
5 of the last 15 winners had already won a Listed or better class race
Favourites have won 4 of the last 15 renewals.
Of the last 15 renewals John Gosden, Sir Michael Stoute and Mark Johnston have all claimed 3 victories.
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 4-8
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2
None of the last ten winners had run in Group company as a Juvenile.
8 of the last 10 winners had an adjusted RPR of at least 120
8 of the last 10 winners had yet to win over 12 furlongs
7 of the last 10 winners ran in a recognised Derby Trial (two were successful)
6 of the last 10 winners had won over 9-11 furlongs earlier in the season
Race analysis:
Aidan O’Brien saddles three in an attempt to win this race for the first time since 2004. His representatives Delano Roosevelt, Rostropovitch and Guiseppe Garibaldi occupy three of the first six places in the early markets. Delano Roosevelt is the favourite and is the choice of Ryan Moore. He was second in two Derby trials, the Ballysax and the Derrinstwon, at Leopardstown earlier in the season and in the latter the manner of his finish strongly suggested the step up to 12 furlongs would suit. He got the chance to prove it in the Derby but he was asked to make his move from too far back and never got involved. It was still a respectable effort and he shouldn’t be written off back on better ground. Rostropovitch was a Group two winner as a Juvenile and started off his three year old campaign over a mile in France. He improved for that outing by convincingly winning the Listed Dee stakes at Chester when stepped up to an extended 10 furlongs. Pitched in to French derby he finished 9th of the 16 runners, beaten five lengths, in a messy race. His pedigree doesn’t scream for this further step up in trip but, if he gets it, he is likely to get competitive. This will be the first time he has encountered ground this quick since his debut. Guiseppe Garibaldi was placed in a Group Three as a Juvenile and has improved significantly with each run this season, culminating in a Listed victory over 12 furlongs on fast ground at Leopardstown last time out. He may not have achieved as much as his two stablemates but he is proven over the trip on fast ground, something they can’t lay claim to. Godolphin are represented by Old Persian. He was a dual Novice winner over a mile as a Juvenile and all three races this season have been over ten furlongs at Newmarket. Two victories, the last a Listed race, and a second have produced similar levels of performance. There is plenty of encouragement in his breeding for this first step up to 12 furlongs and it could illicit the improvement he needs to get involved at the finish. John Gosden has a good recent record in this race and he is represented by Raa Atoll. He never raced as a Juvenile but has shown plenty of ability in his three starts this season.  Beaten two lengths by Nordic Lights over ten furlongs on his debut, he went to Nottingham for his second start and comfortably beat Elector over the same trip. The second re-opposes on seven pounds better terms today but the manner of the victory suggests Raa Atoll can confirm the form. Stepped up to 12 furlongs last time out at Leicester he stayed on strongly to beat stablemate, Photographer by a comfortable two lengths. He showed no signs of inexperience, travelled well and hit the line hard. He will probably stay further than this so the stiff nature of this track will suit, as will the likely strong pace. It’s a big step from Novice to Group Two company but that demonstrates the regard in which he is held by his Trainer, who doesn’t tilt at windmills. Wells Farhh Go looked a very promising Juvenile and he stuck to his task, despite being edgy beforehand, in the Dante over ten furlongs at York on his sole start this season. He still has plenty of potential as a middle distance horse after just three starts and could begin to realise that potential here.        
Raa Atoll – 2 pts win @ 11/2. (Black Type)
3.40 – Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo) – 6 furlongs 
Key Trends:
This race was only introduced in 2015 so reliable trends have yet to be established.
Race analysis:
Although the first four in the market EquilateralSioux NationInvincible Army and Sands Of Mali look to hold the best claims and arguably have the most potential it may be worth giving Fleet Review a chance to make the frame at least. On his final start last season he was only beaten half a length by US Navy Flag in the Group One Middle Park stakes at Newmarket. He had several of his rivals today, including Sioux Nation, behind him. He was back to form on his second start this season when beaten a length and a quarter by his aforementioned stablemate, Sioux Nation, and on three pounds worse terms he has work to do to reverse the form. However, he is bred to stay further than six furlongs and the stiff nature of this course could see some of the more natural ‘speedballs’ wilting in the latter stages. He is drawn where most of the genuine early pace is and, as you would expect given his pedigree, he is well suited by quick ground. He may still fall short of what Sioux Nation is capable of given that one’s scope for major physical development but at around 4-5 times the price of the favourite he makes enough e/w appeal to be worth consideration. Wayne Lordan takes the ride and he has four previous wins here on the straight track at this meeting.     
Fleet Review – 0.75 pts e/w @ 20/1. (Skybet – 1/5 odds first 5) 
4.20 – Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo) – 1m (7f213y) on the round course: 
Key Trends:
16 of the last 16 winners had won over at least 7 furlongs before.
15 of the last 16 winners returned 8/1 or shorter.
13 of the last 16 winners had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season.
12 of the last 16 winners had won a Group 1 or 2 previously.
11 of the last 16 winners had won over at least a 1 mile before.
8 of the last 16 winners had run at Ascot before (3 were successful).
8 of the last 16 winners ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas.
9 of the last 10 winners had run in a European Guineas.
7 of the last 16 winners were unplaced last time out.
Favourites have won 7 of the last 16 renewals.
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
6 of the last 12 winners were non UK-trained – French (3), Irish (3)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 5/1
All of the last 10 winners had an adjusted rating of 123.
All of the last ten winners were rated within 7 pounds of the RPR top rated.
8 of the last 10 winners had won earlier in the season.
Race analysis:
This is how it should be in a race this prestigious, a clash between the winners of the English, Irish and French 1000 Guineas. The Irish winner, Alpha Centauri heads the market. A winner of her first two starts as a Juvenile she went off favourite for the Albany at this meeting last season and finished a neck second to Different league. Stepped up to seven furlongs for her final race of the campaign and the first of this one she was disappointing in testing conditions. Earlier form suggested the ground was the reason and that was backed up when she won the Irish 1000 Guineas returned to quicker ground last time out. That was her first attempt at a mile and the second, Could It Be Loved, was a good third in the Jersey stakes here on Wednesday. A stiff mile run at a sound pace saw her produce a career best by some way and she gets those conditions again this afternoon. Billesdon Brook was an unconsidered 66/1 shot when winning the English 1000 Guineas in May but the way she travelled and finished her race showed a well run mile suited her well. She gets that for just the second time here and the horse she beat into second franked the form in no uncertain terms when subsequently winning the Group One Prix De Diane last Sunday. David Simcock recorded his first Classic victory when Teppal won the French 1000 guineas. It’s hard to evaluate the value of the form in comparison to the other Guineas winners but to do it after just two starts (both victories) in Novice company last season was a testament to her inherent ability. She will need to improve again to compete with the best of these but that would seem to be more likely than not. Aidan O’Brien’s filly, Clemmie, was a very progressive Juvenile last season and, after a set back she looked in need of her reappearance in the Irish 1000 Guineas last month. She is likely to show the benefit of that outing but it’s a bit disconcerting to hear her Trainer state that she may not be at her peak just yet. That may not preclude her from winning but it’s not a positive vibe. Of the rest, Threading is the most interesting. He beat a decent 102 rated yardstick with ease at York last time out and if she builds on that she could begin to realise the potential she showed when winning a Group Two on her second start as a Juvenile. 
No Bet.
5.00 – Sandringham Stakes (Handicap) (Fillies) (Class 2) (3yo 0-105) – 1 mile on the straight course.
Key Trends:
14 of the last 16 winners returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14 of the last 16 winners had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
13 of the last 16 winners had never run at Ascot before
12 of the last 16 winners had won over at least 7 furlongs before
11 of the last 16 winners carried 8-11 or more (9 of the last 10 winners carried 9-05 or lower)
10 of the last 16 winners were placed in their previous race
7 of the last 16 winners had exactly 3 runs already that season
7 of the last 16  winners won their last race, 9 of the last 10 winners finished first or second in one of their last two races
7 of the last 16 winners returned a double-figure price
Favourites have won 5 of the last 16 renewals.
Frankie Dettori has a good record in the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 17/2
All the last 10 winners had previously run over a mile.
9 of the last 10 winners were rated 94 or higher.
9 of the last 10 winners had run within 38 days of the race.
Race analysis:
Qazyna – Only faded in the last furlong in the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes over 10 furlongs at Newmarket last time out and to be beaten just over 8 lengths by the 109 rated Lah Ti Dar and five lengths by the 102 rated Expressiy was no disgrace, despite not seeing out the trip. She travelled for the majority of that race like a very good horse and the drop back to a stiff mile today looks right up her street. She was very impressive when winning a Newmarket maiden on her second, and penultimate, start and subsequent victories for the second, third and sixth give that form some substance. An opening mark of 94 is one she can exploit and would be lenient if, as she visually suggests, she is a Group class Filly. She handles fast ground and has plenty of untapped potential.  
Ceilidhs Dream – May not be as visually impressive as Qazyna but she has a similar profile in as much as she has run three times and didn’t appear to stay over further last time out. She narrowly beat subsequent dual winner, Sea Of Class (now rated 107), on her penultimate start and there was four lengths back to the third who has also subsequently tasted victory. Her defeat over an extended ten furlongs last time out and having made ground to hold every chance entering the latter stages she couldn’t go through with her effort. An opening mark of 90 looks manageable and the yard had a big priced runner perform well in the King George V Handicap here yesterday. 
Qazyna – 1.25 pts e/w @ 11/1. (Betstars – 1/5 odds first 5)
Ceilidhs Dream – 1 pt e/w @ 14/1. (Black Type – 1/5 odds first 5) 
5.35 – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes (Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+ 0-105) – 1m4f (1m3f211y):
Key Trends:
15 of the last 15 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
14 of the last 15 winners had won over at least 10 furlong before
14 of the last 15 winners had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
12 of the last 15 winners carried 9-0 or more
11 of the last 15 winners were placed last time out
10 of the last 15 winners had at least 2 previous runs that season
9 of the last 15 winners were trained by Hughie Morrison (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (4)
8 of the last 15 winners had won over 12 furlongs before
7 of the last 15 winners had run at Ascot before
7 of the last 15 winners returned a double-figure price
11 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall
7 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/1
9 of the last 10 winners were Officially Rated between 91 and 101
9 of the last 10 winners achieved their best RPR in a Class 2 or 3 handicap.
9 of the last 10 winners had a top three finish last time out.
8 of the last 10 winners ran no more than four times that season (two exceptions both trained by Mark Johnston)
Race analysis:
Appeared – The only three times he has raced over this C/D he has produced career best performances. Hasn’t been seen since Last August but was an easy winner over this C/D on his reappearance last season and has a history of going well fresh. Followed last season’s reappearance by finishing second to Rare Rhythm in this race. He was trying to give the winner four pounds which, in hindsight, was an impossible task with the winner now rated 18 pounds higher. Appeared is just two pounds higher than he was in this race last season and it’s likely this has been his early campaign target. A wide draw complicates matters but five winners this decade have been drawn in stalls 19 or 21, including the last three. He is older than a typical winner but he is a six year old with the mileage of a younger horse.    
Sir Chauvelin – One of the outsiders for this race and probably won’t appear on many radars. He is also a six year old but is far more exposed and wouldn’t be a typical type for this race. However, he produced a career best over hurdles this year and returned to the flat to finish two and half lengths fourth to Big Country over 10 furlongs at Redcar last month. That wasn’t far sort of his career best on the level and was the first time he had encountered quick ground in this sphere since winning over 12 furlongs at Hamilton last May. His effort at Redcar was by some way his best effort over a trip that short and that augurs well for this return to further. He is three pound above his highest winning mark but he is one who will benefit if the pace collapses late on. In all likelihood, a victory is probably beyond him but his price doesn’t reflect his current form and he looks worth a small e/w consideration.
Appeared – 1.25 pts e/w @ 11/1. (Paddy Power – 1/5 odds first 5)
Sir Chauvelin – 0.5 pts e/w @ 40/1. (Paddy Power – 1/5 odds first 5)