All bets will be posted here
Monday 28th September
El Pedro returned Saturday night’s losses with the minimum of fuss. Bolting out and going clear winning by over 6 lengths. The 5/4 available was just too big.
Nottingham opens tonight in the betting shops, but the racing as nearly all of you should know by now doesn’t excite me.
However I must mention that my top dog Blackstone Marco is running there for the first time this evening .
I have always thought the track would suit him. We took a chance going there without a trial hoping he would qualify through his heat and improve in the Final.
However we were dealt two heavy blows – trap four in by far the hardest heat of the three, which isn’t ideal. So now I just want him to come off in one piece and I won’t be betting him.
If he wins tonight or even comes second it will be a massive unexpected result.
Will do a blog update tomorrow with another free tip looking to make it four winners from four selections.
We have the Doncaster St Leger meeting on Sky Tv Wednesday to finish what will be another good profitable month.
No bets advised today.
MLB: Toronto (team total over 4.5 runs) v Baltimore. 5pts @ 20/23 (bet365) – tues 12.05am
toronto are the hottest team with the bat in baseball at present and tonight they face an out of sorts pitcher who has given up 5 runs in last 11 innings work & has a ERA of over 5. those 2 stats combined should see toronto score a min of 5 runs.
5pts advised at 20/23
NFL: Green Bay (-6pts) v Kansas – 4pts @ 10/11 (bet365) – tues 01.30am
packers are possibly the 2nd strongest team in NFL at present & coming off a big win against super bowl favs seattle their confidence must be sky high! they face a good outfit in kansas & i expect a fairly close game but packers should win this & just cover the spread.
4pts advised at 10/11
A pretty quiet day today with just the one bit of info through. No selection.
Secret Lightning (Hamilton 4.20) – She is in good form and goes well here. There look a couple of live dangers but also a few we should be beating comfortably. She should run well and has solid e/w claims.
No bets today
The Inside Rail
Saturday was a disappointing day. Exchequer and Nameitwhatyoulike both found one too good, the latter returning us place money. Grand Inquisitor was three quarters of a length and a head third at Newmarket where our other selection in the same race, Tamayuz Star, unfortunately suffered a fatal heart attack. Man Of Harlech did the best of out selections in the Cambridgeshire finishing fourth of the 34 runners; the others finished 11th (My Dream Boat), 16th (Express Himself) and 17th (Halation). Elsewhere there were disappointing efforts from Dungannon and Aramist at Haydock and Arnold Lane at Ripon.
3.10 – Bath:
Azure Amour. 1 pt win. Available at 10/1.
Edge. 0.5 pts win. Available at 25/1.
Step On It. 0.5 pts win. Available at 33/1.
Royal Roslea, Glennten and Ayala’s Emperor arguably bring the best recent form into this race but it could be worth chancing some at bigger prices. Azure Amour shed her maiden status at the tenth time of asking over this C/D on firm ground in July and improved on that effort when finishing two and half lengths third of the five runners in a better race on G/S ground back over this C/D on her penultimate start. She was last of the nine finishers behind Ayala’s Emperor at Chepstow last time out but it may be worth forgiving her that run because both soft ground and the track may not have been to her liking. The excellent Tom Marquand, who was on board for the second of her C/D starts, is back in the plate and the three pounds he claims is very valuable. At much bigger prices are Edge and Step On It. Edge has been getting the worst of arguments in Claimers, Sellers and a couple of Handicaps in this class in recent months but the last time he encountered fast ground he was placed in two outings over today’s trip at Chepstow. They were both from five pounds higher than he runs from today so, if the ground brings about a form revival, he could get more competitive than the market suggests. Step on It is much less exposed, making just his sixth start this afternoon. He hasn’t got within six lengths of a winner yet and he has been well beaten in both handicap starts this season. That would suggest he is set to struggle again but both outings this term came after significant breaks and he is not impossibly weighted on his maiden form last season. The first time cheekpieces could sharpen him up and he may not be one to give up on just yet.
4.20 – Hamilton – Secret Lightning. 2 pts win. Available at 6/1.
Having gone close on his turf/stable debut last week, Treasury Notes is a warm order to go one better from the same mark here. He has joined David O’Meara and after just five starts this entire is open to plenty of improvement. However, even though the stable is often pitching their horses into very competitive fields, it must be a source of concern that they haven’t had a winner since the 15th of this month, a period in which they have had 58 entries. Treasury Notes could progress past this opposition but he makes limited appeal at such a short price. Trading at around three times the price is another three year old, Secret Lightning, and she is preferred. She won against higher rated Fillies and Mares at Ripon last month and hasn’t been beaten far in two races against her own sex since. She wouldn’t want the ground drying pout too much but this represents a drop in grade and she went close against the males back in June from four pounds lower in the weights. Although she looks weighted to around her best she does come here in good heart and has run well on both previous visits to the track. The yard have a very profitable 25% strike rate at this track (4 from 16) and they arrive in good form.
4.50 – Hamilton – Nelson’s Bay. 1 pt e/w. Available at 16/1.
Sur Empire is a very strong favourite for this race and could be a difficult horse to beat. However she will have competition up front and there are others at much bigger prices that could place at least. Preference from that list is Nelson’s Bay. He doesn’t have any secrets after 38 starts and he hasn’t performed to his best in eight of his ten excursions beyond eight and a half furlongs. His three wins have come at a mile or less but, despite his poor record over further, he has often hinted that a longer trip may suit. He was finishing well over ten furlongs at Newcastle back in June and he runs from a seven pound lower mark here this afternoon. His claims are hardly compelling but he does go well for today’s jockey who has two victories and three placed efforts from ten rides when partnering. There is just about enough in the price to warrant an e/w consideration for an in-form yard who took this race with a 25/1 shot under today’s pilot last season and send just one to the track.
5.40 – Bath – Lucky Clover. 1 pt e/w. Available at 14/1.