The fourth and final day of the 2023 Cheltenham Festival with the blue riband race, the Gold Cup, due off at 3.30 pm.
1.30 – Cheltenham – Friday 17th March 2023:
JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo):
Distance: 2 miles 1 furlong on the New Course.
The four year old hurdling championship and those with proven Graded form often come to the fore. Unbeaten hurdlers have a good record.
Positive Trends to consider:
23 of the last 29 winners won last time out
9 of the last 14 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
Irish have won 7 of the last 10 renewals
French-breds have filled 13 of the last 22 places over the last 8 renewals
13 of the last 18 came from the top 4 in the betting
12 of the last 15 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
9 of the last 12 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles (7 of the last 11) last time
9 of the last 11 winners had raced by Christmas time
6 of the last 8 winners began their careers in France
Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 3 seconds in the last 9 years
Negative trends to note:
Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
Just 2 of the last 18 winners returned bigger than 12/1
No winner of the last 14 renewals were rated 138 or lower
Willie Mullins has fairly poor record (2 from 34) but those victories did come in 2020 and 2022
Last 8 Adonis Hurdles winners have all lost (all unplaced too)
Analysis:
Horses top rated have fared well in this race recently along with horses rated at or above the low 140’s. It’s maybe not too surprising that ex flat horses do well in this race since there isn’t much jumping in the second half of the race. Those from the level rated above 80 are the horses to note. Last time out winners have won a great majority of the renewals even though they often provide less than 50% of the runners. Horses from the flat will need stamina for this and most that have been successful had run over at least 12 furlongs, the ill-fated Our Conor being an exception in 2013. The introduction of the Fred Winter in 2005 has removed most of the dead wood from this race and since then nearly all the winners have come from the top three in the betting. However there has only been four winning favourites in the past 19 years but they have all come in four of the last eight renewals. Being a race for four year olds, this is not a race that is easy to get a handle on. Most of the runners are lightly raced and open to varying degrees of improvement but it seems the market knows which form lines are the strongest and it’s probably the best guide.
It’s been glaringly obvious up to now that the Irish Novices (and their hurdlers in general) are some way ahead of their British counterparts. Maybe it’s down to less top class races available on this side of the Irish Sea but when there is a chance to race in them connections of the better horses seem reluctant to take each other on. That doesn’t happen in Ireland where the top horses don’t duck each other. The result is more battle hardened individuals who have been forced to improve to get competitive. There are still those that win easily every time they race but that’s normally because they are very good and not being made to look good by facing inferior opposition.
This season Willie Mullins fields seven of the fifteen runners, including the only three in the market at single figure prices. There are only three British trained entries and two of those represent Ben Pauling. It’s not a race That appeals from a betting perspective.
Selection:
No Bet.
2.10 – Cheltenham – Friday 17th March 2023:
McCoy Contractors County Handicap Hurdle Grade 3 (CLASS 1):
Distance: 2 miles 1 furlong on the New Course.
The County Hurdle on the final day of the festival is a typically competitive open handicap but it’s one in which statistical trends have stood the test of time. What they inevitably point to is the ‘type’ of horse and it’s position in the handicap (weight and/or mark) required to win this race. Run over the same C/D as the Triumph Hurdle, this used to be the final race of the meeting but has now been moved to race two on the final day
Positive Trends to consider:
The Irish have won 11 of the last 16 renewals
7 of the last 8 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (4) or Dan Skelton (3)
Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 13 renewals
18 of the last 22 winners were novices or second season hurdlers
13 of the last 17 winners were rated in the 130’s
8 of the last 15 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
7 of the last 14 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
13 of the last 17 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
12 of the last 24 winners aged 5
6 of the last 9 winners had run at Cheltenham before
11 of the last 16 winners Irish-trained
9 of the last 15 winners started their careers in France
13 of the last 17 winners were priced in double-figures
13 of the last 19 winners began their careers on the flat
Look for Mullins, Skelton, Martin & Nicholls-trained runners
Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
12 of the last 22 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
12 of the last 16 winners didn’t win last time out
5 of the last 7 winners hadn’t raced in the last 72 days
Paul Nicholls is 4 from 31 (+15pts)
Willie Mullins is 4 from 48 (+40.25pts)
Negative trends to note:
Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
Only 2 winners since 2000 winning with a mark of 150+
Gordon Elliott has a poor record (0 from 19) since 2011
Nicky Henderson has a poor record (0 from 35) this century
Horses aged 9+ are 0 from 35 in last 15 renewals
Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
Since 2005, just 2 winners rated 146 this season
Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
Avoid horses making their handicap debuts, although last 2 winners have defied this stat
Just 2 winning outright favourites in last 21
Just 3 of the last 15 winners returned a single-figure price
Analysis:
Pembroke and Hunters Yarn are vying for favouritism but prices of around 11/2 in a race of this nature don’t make much appeal at this stage. Gin Coco hasn’t been out of the first two in his six races to date, winning twice. His five starts for Harry Fry have come on ground no worse than good/yielding but he showed promise on very soft ground on his debut in France so conditions here shouldn’t pose a problem. He was second in a big field handicap at Punchestown last April and his second to I like to Move It in the Greatwood last time out was made to looks a decent effort with his conqueror’s subsequent easy win in the Kingwell Hurdle. Only four pounds here, he has presumably been aimed at this race. Wonderwall hasn’t been seen over hurdles since he fell at the last at Huntingdon 13 months ago. Prior to that he had beaten City Chief by three lengths in a Maiden at Doncaster and the second has advertised that form on more than occasion since. He ran as well as could be expected in a Grade Two Novice Chase when last seen in November and resumes over the smaller obstacles here on his handicap debut. The balance of his form suggests an opening mark of 136 is very fair and he handles soft ground as well as quicker. Petit Tonnerre travels well in his races and he gives the impression that a fast run two miles could be just what he needs. Pinkerton wouldn’t have been suited by the slow pace of the five runner Conditions race over 20 furlongs he took part in at Limerick last time out. Prior to that he finished second in a big field Fairyhouse handicap in soft ground and he can run from the same mark here as he does in Ireland. After just six starts over hurdles he has scope for further improvement. Faivoir was pulled up in the Betfair hurdle at Newbury last time out but he probably found the ground faster than he would prefer and he never looked happy. He is nine pounds below the mark from which he finished in midfield in this race last season. He was the winner of a small field Novice race over an extended 20 furlongs here back in 2021 and, although none of his five victories over hurdles have come in handicaps, he is certainly now weighted to do so and he could outrun his big odds.
Selections:
Gin Coco. 1.25 pts e/w. Available at 10/1. (Generally available – 1/5 odds first 6, BOG)
Wonderwall. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 18/1. (Skybet – 1/5 odds first 8)
Pinkerton. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 25/1. (Paddy Power, Betfair, Bet365 – 1/5 odds first 6, BOG)
Petit Tonnerre. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1. (Bet365 – 1/5 odds first 6, BOG)
Faivoir. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1. (Generally available – 1/5 odds first 6, BOG)
2.50 – Cheltenham – Friday 17th March 2023.
Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Spa Novices´ Hurdle) Grade 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)
Distance: Three Miles on the New Course.
This is a gruelling test for young horses and is a launchpad for future staying stars.
Positive Trends to consider:
9 of the last 18 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
15 of the last 18 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
7 of the last 18 winners won the Hyde or Bristol Classic that season
15 of the last 18 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
7 of the last 11 winners had won a Point
7 of the last 9 winners trained in Ireland
10 of the last 14 winners had won at least twice over hurdles
9 of the last 12 winners had won or been placed in a bumper
9 of the last 18 came from the top 5 in the betting
10 of the last 18 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
14 of the last 18 had run in a race over 3m
15 of the last 17 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
14 of the last 18 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
16 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
12 of the last 18 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
15 of the last 17 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
4 of the last 17 favourites won
Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins, from 2 runners!)
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 6 renewals
Negative Trends to note:
Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
Avoid horses that didn’t finish 1st or 2nd last time out
Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
Willie Mullins is 3 from 44 in the race, but has won 2 of the last 5
Gordon Elliott is 0 from 9
Be wary of ex flat horses (1 from 18)
Nicky Henderson is 0 from 14 in the last 10 years
5 year-olds have a poor record (1 from 17)
Only 4 of the last 17 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year
Analysis:
Despite reservations, since it’s introduction in 2005 the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle has been a good source of top class horses. The majority of winners had previous Cheltenham experience and had won at the track. This can be a severe test for a young horse and those to have run over the trip before have fared well in this race. All previous winners of this race had previously run at least three times over hurdles. This is the kind of race where older Novices can perform well, probably because age brings about strength, and therefore stamina.. This is often a difficult puzzle to solve with plenty open to further improvement at the trip. Having won over two and three miles Corbetts Cross has marked himself down as a potentially top class horse. After finishing second on his hurdling debut he has won all three starts since and he has the profile of a very progressive horse. He deserves his place at the top of the market. Second favourite, Three Card Brag, is likely to improve significantly for this step up in trip. There has only been one favourite win this race in the past decade and only two in that time have won at a single figure price. It’s hard to get away from the first three in the market here but we will risk a small e/w stake on Letsbeclearaboutit. He has had his problems but that means he is now a mature horse who is lightly raced. He was a classy Bumper Horse whose only two defeats in five came at the hands of Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard. He has been beaten by both Favori De Champdou and Hiddenvalley Lake this season but he has improved with each of his four starts over hurdles and he had a confidence boosting first victory over obstacles at Punchestown last time out, albeit only in a Maiden at long odds on.
Selections:
Letsbeclearaboutit. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 18/1. (Ladbrokes – 1/5 odds first 5, BOG)
3.30 – Cheltenham – Friday 17th March 2023:
Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+):
Disatance: 3 miles 2 and a half furlongs on the New Course.
The feature race of the week and of the season in general. This the sternest test of jumping and stamina for a Grade One Chaser and one in which comparatively lightly raced Chasers have done well in recent times. This is a race which has been tough to get over for some winners and could be a reason many fail when trying to follow up in the Bowl at Aintree.
Positive Trends to consider:
19 of the last 23 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
19 of the last 22 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
18 of the last 23 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
11 of the last 17 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
22 of the last 23 winners had won at Grade 1 level
Every winner since 2000 only had one season hurdling
18 of the last 22 had won or placed at the Festival before
18 of the last 22 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
20 of the last 23 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
13 of the last 15 winners ran 3 or less times that season
17 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
16 of the last 22 winners won last time out
10 of the last 20 winners were favourites (50%)
13 of the last 18 winners yet to win beyond 3m 1/2f
ALL of the last 23 winners were aged 9 or younger
22 of the last 23 winners aged between 7-9 years-old
20 of the last 23 winners were in their first three seasons over fences
Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record
5 of the last 12 winners ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase the previous season
Negative trends to note:
Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 73)
Just one winning 6 year-old since 1964
Horses rated 166 or less are only 6 from last 41
Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
Willie Mullins has only won the race twice (2020, 2019), 2 from 36 (had 4 of the last 10 seconds and the 2019 & 2020 winner though)
Only 3 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
Just 2 of the last 15 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well
Only 2 winners since 2000 had previously been beaten in the race
No winner since 2000 ran in that season’s Cotswold Chase
Analysis:
Galopin Des Champs has the potential to be a superstar and his chances have been enhanced by the less than ideal preparation of last season’s winner, A Plus Tard . It would be some training performance if the defending champion can reach the heights he is likely to need to repeat his demolition of last season. Grand National winner, Noble Yeats has never won a Grade One race and a similar comment applies to Eldorado Allen, Royal Pagaille, Stattler and Sounds Russian. The one to make most appeal outside of the favourite is Bravemansgame. He ran a clear career best when easily winning the King George in December and his fast accurate jumping will give him every chance of seeing out this trip. Doubts have been voiced about the suitability of the track but he was within three pounds of his best performance over hurdles here and he was a winner on the undulations of Exeter over the smaller obstacles. His current price seems more than fair for such a classy individual.
Selection:
Bravemansgame. 2 pts win. Available at 13/2. (Generally available, BOG)
4.10 – Cheltenham – Friday 17th March 2023.
St James’s Place Festival Challenge Cup Open Hunters’ Chase (CLASS 2) (5yo+):
Distance: 3 miles 2 and a half furlongs on the New Course
This is a spectacle worth watching but it’s not a race we get involved for betting purposes.
Selection:
No Bet.
4.50 – Cheltenham – Friday 17th March 2023:
Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Registered As The Liberthine Mares’ Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+):
Distance: 2 miles four and half furlongs on the New Course.
This is the third renewal of this Mares’ Chase, A Grade 2 Chase run over the same trip as the Ryanair. It is hoped that the introduction of this race on Gold Cup day will lead to more high class Mares being sent Chasing in the coming years.
Trends to date:
Only 2 previous runnings
Willie Mullins trained both winners
Willie Mullins has a good record in ‘mares’ only’ races at the Festival
Both winners returned 9/4 2nd favourite
Both winners won last time out
Both winners rated 150+
Both winners aged 8
Both winners had run well at the Cheltenham Festival before.
Jeremy’s Flame is respected but she is much more exposed than the two ahead of the market. Both of those rivals, Allegorie De Vassy and Impervious are both unbeaten after two and three starts respectively over fences and both have done it in Graded company. The former has a big engine but his tendency to jump out to his right could pose a problem on this track and Impervious may be the one to be on. However both don’t appeal from a a betting perspective and it’s a race we will sit out.
Selections:
No bet.
5.30 – Cheltenham – Friday 17th March 2023:
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys´ Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+ 0-145):
Distance: 2 miles 4 and a half furlongs on the New Course.
Positive Trends to consider:
13 of the last 14 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
10 of the last 12 winners placed in the top 3 last time
All of the last 14 winners carried 11-1 or more
3 of the last 5 winners had top-weight
All 14 winners aged 7 or younger
8 or the last 11 winners rated 139+
12 of the last 14 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
6 of the last 9 winners were Irish-based Novices
Irish have won 8 of the last 12 (6 making handicap debuts)
36 of the 38 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
11 of the 14 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
7 of the 14 winners won last time out
6 of the last 9 winners had run over a longer trip that season
8 of the 14 winners were rated 133-139
9 of the 14 winners returned at a double-figure price (11 of the last 14 were 16/1 or less)
5 and 6 year-old have won 12 of last 14 renewals
Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
Willie Mullins is 4 from 22 runners in the race (won 4 of the last 12 renewals)
Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 10 years
Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 6 renewals
Trainer Joseph O’Brien has won 2 of the last 4
Nicholls, Elliott, Mullins and O’Brien have won 9 of the last 10 between them
Negative trends to note:
Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 23, inc 3 favs)
Horses aged 8+ are 0-from 59
Just 1 winning fav in the 14 year history
Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 75
Only 4 winners have previous Festival experience
Horses with 11st or less are currently 0 from 96
Selections:
Cool Survivor. 2.5 pts win. Available at 5/1. (Coral, Bet365, BOG)
Iroko. 1.5 pts win. Available at 17/2. (William Hill)
Might I. 1.25 pts e/w. Available at 10/1. (Generally available – 1/5 odds first 5)
Recent Comments